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Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function
#30858	02/19/2016 9:50:13 am		Ignore
Crazy Li Joined: 01/25/2015 Posts: 879 Inactive	Since I'm sure I'm not the only one who estimates out where a player will end up, I thought it might be fun to look at a few players and compare what I guessed to how they came out. Not all of these are necessarily done growing, but are probably close. Christian Falcon Guess: 11/16/10/16/17/11/17/8 (105 SI) Actual: 12/17/9/15/16/14/17/9 (106 SI) Qi Hu Guess: 15/16/10/15/15/10/9/13 (104 SI) Actual: 14/15/7/13/12/9/9/13 (91 SI) Lorenzo Santos Guess: 17/12/14/17/18/12/11/12 (115 SI) Actual: 16/12/13/17/17/12/11/12 (111 SI) Martin Mata Guess: 15/14/13/15/18/12/11/8 (109 SI) Actual: 14/12/13/14/18/10/11/8 (103 SI) Updated Friday, February 19 2016 @ 9:52:13 am PST
#30859	02/19/2016 10:29:14 am		Ignore
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5201 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Nice work. I have quite a bit I could post. I'll give a sample. Most of my "misses" have been because a guy goes to the top end of his potential spectrum. Won't complain about that. Pitchers Bradley Join: 10-4-9-7-7-9-14-11 63 (22 yr old) Pred: 15-10-18-14-10-15-14-11 104 Made: 15-10-19-14-10-15-14-11 105 Missed by 1 point of movement. Even got his fielding right. Conti Join: 7-3-4-3-3-4-6-8 34 (19 yr old) Pred: 17-14-15-14-7-10-6-8 96 Made: 17-15-16-17-6-8-6-8 100 Missed by a fair bit on the control, mostly due to him overshooting my total SI guess. Rosado Join: 5-3-6-1-2-3-9-17 34 (19 yr old) Pred: 13-16-11-14-14-12-9-17 104 Made: 14-16-13-15-17-10-9-17 111 Did not see 17 stam coming. Position Baez Join: 2-6-0-0-16-3-18-15 60 (17 yr old) Pred: 15-10-8-6-16-17-18-15 105 Made: 14-7-12-7-16-17-18-15 107 His high starting BC made me think he would be BC > PD. But in 8 seasons he's only added 1 more point there. May still be improving. Enriquez Join: 8-6-6-5-6-5-17-12 66 (20 yr old) Pred: 18-10-13-17-6-7-17-12 Made: 19-8-15-17-6-6-16-12 I revised his BC-PD to 9-15 when he was 22 (hadn't moved in 2 seasons). Somehow felt he would be a PD guy from the start. May still be improving. Butler Join: 0-3-2-2-17-3-12-13 52 (17 yr old) Pred: 15-18-16-12-17-13-12-13 Made: 13-15-12-11-17-13-12-13 Definitely still improving. But forming up as expected.
#30869	02/19/2016 12:01:30 pm		Ignore
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Looks solid. I don't write my predictions down, and have not been as good as you guys' examples, but I haven't been terribly off on too many guys either. Andujar, Burke, and Guzman have been my only significant misses, and considering Guzman is still my starting right fielder I guess he can't be too bad.
#30883	02/19/2016 2:19:04 pm		Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I've never done predictions for my players before, but this thread is making me want to start
#30884	02/19/2016 2:29:56 pm		Ignore
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5201 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Its a fun mini-game. I would be lost trying to make personnel decisions without some vision of how the player may develop.
#30887	02/19/2016 2:42:52 pm		Ignore
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Exactly, my projections for my players though kept entirely in my head is actually my number 1 factor in figuring out who to cut in my minors. Not the most scientific way of doing it, but it has gotten me this far... Updated Friday, February 19 2016 @ 2:43:17 pm PST
#30891	02/19/2016 3:35:44 pm		Ignore
Crazy Li Joined: 01/25/2015 Posts: 879 Inactive	Yeah, it's kinda neat to see how well you did. I haven't been doing this enough to have many, but look forward to see how this looks after more of my predictions get to the 26-28 range.
#32916	04/05/2016 5:14:57 pm		Ignore
Crazy Li Joined: 01/25/2015 Posts: 879 Inactive	Re-visiting this thread at season's end to see how things have come along. Hu did gain another pop, bringing his CoS to 16. Other than that, he's still missing in a few areas and is very unlikely to close the gap. Santos now sits at 16/13/13/17/18 13/11/12, putting him very close to my SI guess, just with a slightly different distribution. Mata made no progress at given his age, is more than likely done, another player failing to reach his potential. It might be safe to start talking about Corey Lawson now. He still seems to have minors training to get, but in spite of that, he's sitting at 117 SI. The significance of this is that I only predicted 115. Guess: 19/16/14/10/13/11/18/15 Actual so far: 17/18/17/9/13/11/18/14 Was a bit off on his the points would fall, but I'm certainly not complaining. Either way, I expected a strong player and it looks like I have one. Still going to be ultra-patient and not call him up until the system tells me to. I finished second this season, so there's no real sense of urgency to use him over weaker players. Another good guess of mine I forgot to post was this: Oswaldo Maya Guess: 16/13/17/15/10/18/13/8 (110 SI) Actual: 16/13/17/16/10/17/13/9 (111 SI) A couple of less important players that still have a few years of possible development: Luis Castro Guess: 11/9/9/9/16/16/16/14 (100 SI) Actual: 10/7/8/8/16/16/16/14 (95 SI) Chin Hae Kim Guess: 10/14/10/15/8/16/14/15 (102 SI) Actual: 9/12/10/13/8/14/14/15 (95 SI) But not all predictions have been great. Here's my biggest failure: Santiago Gutiérrez Guess: 19/16/12/18/14/10/17/14 (120 SI) Actual: 7/10/5/8/14/5/17/14 (80 SI)
#32919	04/05/2016 6:35:21 pm		Ignore
pyrog Joined: 07/16/2014 Posts: 41 Inactive	I'm thinking about possibly trying this out. Was wondering if you guys had any tips?
#32922	04/06/2016 2:11:43 am		Ignore
Favuz Joined: 02/26/2014 Posts: 639 Oxnard Sunsets IV.3	More or less i have an idea of how my youngsters will look (regarding SI of course) if they reach their cap, the only one i have absolutely no clue is Grace
#32923	04/06/2016 3:18:37 am		Ignore
JJNZ Joined: 12/09/2014 Posts: 1581 Yakima Monster III.3	Favuz - I'd pick that Grace will end up with 18-20 in each of CoS, Ctrl and Stamina, with an even 10 -12 in each of velocity, movement and fielding - I love that build personally, helps to mix up the rotation
#32925	04/06/2016 5:02:57 am		Ignore
Yuri84 Joined: 10/14/2014 Posts: 639 Apple Valley Raccoons IV.4	I predict 13-15 (perhaps even more) fielding for Grace.
#32928	04/06/2016 7:24:49 am		Ignore
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2238 New York Lancers V.4	Okay, obviously its possible to extrapolate from these (very impressive) calculations, but I wondered if anyone had a more general formula? @Seca in particular - I have a player with an almost identical report to Baez in Peterson. Baez is obviously a far superior fielder, but I'm curious as to what you (or anyone) might estimate his maximums to be? Might work out my own formulae after that!
#32931	04/06/2016 11:28:36 am		Ignore
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	@Alamric, judging by his growth so far and his scouting report, my prediction (for what it is worth): 16/12/10/8/15 17/11/9 (98 SI) All calculations are done by a combination of knowing what all the comments mean on the scouting report, knowing what skills have no comments, and looking at the potential. When making the estimate after a few seasons, SI gain over the first few minor league seasons should also factor very heavily into the equation, as once you get a feel for what is healthy SI growth versus what isn't, you can make much more informed decisions on who will pan out versus who will not. Updated Wednesday, April 6 2016 @ 11:34:35 am PDT
#32936	04/06/2016 1:45:08 pm		Ignore
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2238 New York Lancers V.4	Thanks newtman, much appreciated!
#32939	04/06/2016 3:04:07 pm		Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	My projection puts him at 17 Hitting, but everything else is the same as Newtman's.
#32940	04/06/2016 3:10:27 pm		Ignore
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Oops, sorry about misspelling your name in my response.
#32944	04/06/2016 3:41:53 pm		Ignore
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2238 New York Lancers V.4	Heh, don't worry about it - there's some more examples in the V7 thread. Been using this name for about 15 years online, happens all the time!
#32966	04/07/2016 3:48:43 pm		Ignore
buffmckagan Joined: 12/22/2013 Posts: 651 Scranton Bears Legends	If anyone is good with Excel, would they consider making a spreadsheet in which you can insert your player's numbers, preferred SI projections depending on potential, and it can tell you the likelihood of what your player might look like? I know this might be a lot, but I have tried learning and the curve is super steep and kind of challenging. I also don't know how difficult this would be on Excel, but it's just an idea!
#32967	04/07/2016 4:00:13 pm		Ignore
mikkoredsox Joined: 03/29/2015 Posts: 116 Inactive	I'm proficient in Excel and I have a spreadsheet, but I have to manually update it every Friday with the training update. Mine shows more growth percentages and who is progressing the fastest. I also can see how far off players skills are from their scouting report projections. I haven't ever been able to figure out something that can be used for the projections that you seek and I would be very interested as well if someone has come up with something.
#32968	04/07/2016 4:02:54 pm		Ignore
buffmckagan Joined: 12/22/2013 Posts: 651 Scranton Bears Legends	Mikko - any chance you could maybe share with us all? I would still be fascinated to try that for myself and it's better than me noticing total SI differences from year to year.
#32975	04/07/2016 4:32:53 pm		Ignore
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Ultimately the sorts of projections you are seeking buff in my estimation are impossible, because not all players gain skills at the same speed, and it appears to be hidden random presets of who will hit that 15 potential and who will perpetually only gain 2 SI per season. These projection games we are playing in this thread are just educated guesses, however I doubt Crazy Li or Seca will hold on to a prospect who only gains 2 SI his age 22 or 23 seasons, because that is a red flag for development... at the very least I know that is a cut criteria in my book. Edit: Went back and re-read what you said, and I guess you weren't talking about the likelihood of a guy panning out... but I really don't see the point of an excel spreadsheet to make these projections. Maybe that is just me being dense... Updated Thursday, April 7 2016 @ 4:36:36 pm PDT
#32989	04/07/2016 7:06:54 pm		Ignore
mikkoredsox Joined: 03/29/2015 Posts: 116 Inactive	I would be glad to share what I have, but I'm not entirely sure how to attach it to a forum post.
#32992	04/07/2016 7:56:52 pm		Ignore
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	The insert url button might work if you uploaded the file to something like dropbox or another file sharing site.
#33023	04/08/2016 10:24:48 am		Ignore
buffmckagan Joined: 12/22/2013 Posts: 651 Scranton Bears Legends	That's what I was thinking, was Dropbox or something like that!
#33030	04/08/2016 11:09:38 am		Ignore
Crazy Li Joined: 01/25/2015 Posts: 879 Inactive	@newt: Yes, the ones who are not growing as expected are first in line to be cut. If they stay on my team while being behind, it means I've had no luck with my drafts/waivers that season and still have free roster spots xP I mean, I'd never cut a high-potential player if I had open slots on the team. Even if it looks like he'll never pan out, might as well see what happens. I'd rather the system confirm I'm right about him being a failure than find out I was wrong after cutting him (unless I needed to make room) Also, for what it's worth, my spreadsheet is maintained on Google Drive... but it doesn't actually calculate anything of value. It just shows me current and guessed so that I can track actual progress against expected results. The only formula in play is one to automatically add up the numbers for me and display the correct SI. Updated Friday, April 8 2016 @ 11:12:19 am PDT
#33122	04/09/2016 6:34:42 pm		Ignore
Dcmrulz Joined: 02/14/2013 Posts: 588 Inactive	I might try making a spreadsheet, going by player's potential and expectation to hit the absolute cap of his POT given proper farm level using the data of the average growth at their age/experience, but there needs to be more data before a proper assumption can be made, like the impact of managers, now that they do have a rating for development.
#39485	09/16/2016 2:38:50 pm		Ignore
Crazy Li Joined: 01/25/2015 Posts: 879 Inactive	So lets see what happened this year... Denny Lynn Guess: 16/12/12/18/12/10/16/16 (112) Actual: 17/11/14/19/12/11/16/16 (116) definitely no complaints about +4 SI Roger Stein Guess: 16/16/9/12/17/9/11/8 (98) Actual 15/18/11/13/17/8/11/8 (101) Ricardo Torres Guess: 18/13/6/11/9/15/9/17 (98) Actual: 17/12/5/12/9/15/9/17 Kazunori Enatasu Guess: 15/12/15//15/12/7/10/5 (97) Actual: 16/13/13/15/10/9/10/5 (95) Fernado Bonilla Guess: 18/10/16/12/8/10/12/11 (96) Actual: 17/16/15/11/6/15/12/11 (100) Apparently this guy wants to be a gold glove pitcher... he only had 6 fielding when I got him! and I think that's everyone who's either already exceeded prediction or is close to them and probably doesn't have too many points left to gain. Though a few of those are 25-26 so they're likely not done yet.
#45475	02/17/2017 10:33:25 am		Ignore
Crazy Li Joined: 01/25/2015 Posts: 879 Inactive	2030: Jung Hwa Chin Guess: 16/16/17/12/17/5/4/6 (105) Actual: 16/17/13/17/15/8/4/7 (107) This one has me a bit stumped... where's the major league curveball? Granted he can still gain 2 points of movement over the next couple seasons... just odd to see him gain less that and more control. Marcos Valdes Guess: 10/16/15/15/12/7/10/7 (97) Actual: 8/16/17/18/8/17/10/8 (101) yeah I was way off on that distribution...
#51367	07/22/2017 1:00:26 pm		Ignore
Crazy Li Joined: 01/25/2015 Posts: 879 Inactive	End of 2032: Wen Gu Guess: 16/13/11/16/11/10/16/11 (104) Actual: 18/12/10/16/11/12/16/11 (106) no real complaints there... Kang Dae Lee Guess: 16/16/16/9/9/14/14/10 (104) Actual: 16/19/18/11/9/16/14/10 (113) I swear this guy was a 13 pot when I got him... nice over-achievement! Jun Seo Kim Guess: 19/15/11/19/13/11/10/15 (113) Actual: 18/17/13/17/13/12/10/16 (116) I guess fairly conservatively so that often ends up with me being happy at seeing guys get more SI than I predicted. I do like my hopeful distro better though because I think it woulda made him a better cleanup hitter. Even if it's just something like the 11/19 instead of the 13/17, that would have been amazing.

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