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MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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The Decade Of Prestige Evaluation is back. For those of you that missed it the first time, DOPE is my way of calculating recent, unofficial prestige, considering only the last ten seasons. It looks primarily at league positions, awarding points for every spot, including bonuses for winning divisions and leagues. There are also points to be had for Cup play. The progression of points for it, however, is slow and comes on like a freight train toward the end. If you want to check out the original, here it is.

Once again, make your guesses as to who will be the top DOPErs, as well as how you think you'll fare if you think you'll crack the top 140. I'm finishing up the calculations and should be ready to roll out the first groupings within the next day or two.

Peace out.

Updated Wednesday, May 9 2018 @ 6:52:10 am PDT
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
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Good stuff, thanks for doing this again Mike!
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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A quick note about the process again. I calculated the top 125 ranked teams. After that I just scanned histories. If it met the eyeball test of having a shot of making the top 140, I did the math. (Yes, math. There is no subjectivity to DOPE. You make a certain placing whether by tie or by 50 games, you get the same points.) Therefore, it's quite possible I missed a few that could have squeaked in. Also, I stopped checking at 400 because no team had made the list in over 60 teams. I'll roll out the first group later today.
PrivateSnowflake
Joined: 01/06/2015
Posts: 1168

Bloomington Thunder
Legends

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Looking forward to it.

This is where my using the Cup as extended spring training is going to bite the Thunder...still, we should place better than 112 last time.
wickersty
Joined: 05/11/2017
Posts: 1002

Deadwood Perambulators
II.1

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The dope is one of the best organic, community invented and created things to come out of B.B. it’s a wonderful extension of the BB universe. Thanks for doing it Mike.
Deuce
Joined: 06/07/2016
Posts: 279

New London Rippers
V.3

Broken Bat Baseball
Dope is awesome! Thx Mike!

Prediction : Margate Magicians come home 1st or 2nd with College Station

On a personal note, the New London Rippers crack the 140 list(or will in the near future).
Frankebasta
Joined: 09/15/2013
Posts: 885

Kodiak Mules
III.3

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Impressive job.
Very much appreciated
Cactusguy21
Joined: 07/25/2017
Posts: 815

Presque Isle Vikings
III.4

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Shoot, three spots off of automatically getting counted. Hopefully after I win the division this year I'll join the DOPE rankings :)

Good work Mike, I love this stuff.
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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Prediction : Margate Magicians come home 1st or 2nd with College Station

Half of that is a reasonable guess. The other half is the funny weed talking about DOPE.

Sorry for the delay. The first group will be published later tonight.

Updated Thursday, May 10 2018 @ 6:26:26 pm PDT
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

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Yeah, Seca, Freddy, and kladu are going to be the top three. After that, probably garf, then a crapshoot. Mike and I should have remarkably similar profiles this time with having one Legends division title apiece and one LL II title plus a LL III title each in the past ten seasons.
Deuce
Joined: 06/07/2016
Posts: 279

New London Rippers
V.3

Broken Bat Baseball
Maybe, lol
Wasn't aware it went back 10 seasons.
JJNZ
Joined: 12/09/2014
Posts: 1580

Yakima Monster
III.3

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Despite moving up into Legends I'm not sure I'll improve too much on my 73rd ranking if at all. I fully expect Bloomington to overtake me
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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Yes, DOPE only looks at the last 10 seasons. Also, every season gets the same weight. 2035 is worth exactly the same as 2026 and every year in between. I just got through my claims for the night so the list will start pretty soon. I just realized it would be nice to show the original DOPE ratings alongside the current ones. Once I get that worked over, the first group will be proudly put on display. Oh, and I'll make comments on a few things that caught my attention through the process. If they are similar to the original ones, sorry! I'm not going through the original notes and comparing. Finally, while I am tempted to make remarks for whatever reasons about a few teams that have fallen, I am not going to point out the interesting things I saw anyway. I don't want to rub it in. I know it was agony seeing this info the News board...

In a rousing four game sweep, the College Station Athletics edged the Margate Magicians in four straight games. College Station didn’t hit a home run in four games and the story of the series was really the collapse of the Margate pitching, which posted a 5.56 ERA. Congratulations to FreddyTheEye and the College Station Athletics for winning their second Legends title!



I'm so glad there has been enough recent news to get that off the opening page. So don't worry. If your team has faltered, there will be no specific comments about it.

Updated Thursday, May 10 2018 @ 11:45:17 pm PDT
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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I think our eyes like starting with smaller numbers on top and progressing to larger numbers. That’s what I did the first time with DOPE, but I think it makes sense to do it the other way. Call me difficult. There was a tie at 140 this time around, so the list will be 143 teams this year, plus an honorable mention. Alongside the team and its ranking, I’ll put their DOPE rating from 2034 in parenthesis. Here we go!

Honorable mention—Lincoln Park just barely got beat out, coming in at 146. Their rise has been incredible, though, so I felt like giving them a shout out. After 2026, they were ranked 611 on the site. They’ve rocketed to 67 since. Wow.

143—Denton (126)
142—Applewood Crossing (65)
141—Elk Grove (92)
140—Fullerton (133) First five seasons were in V and went 22321. Second five seasons in IV and went 34343. That’s consistency.
139—Germantown (96)
138—Cambridge (NR) Was 520th overall after 2027. That’s moving up!
137—Hoover (116)
136—Baltimore (104) Second highest percentage of DOPE points from Cup play.
135—Cincinatii (86)
134—Dearborn Heights (NR) Two 6 round Cup performances while having no others above 1.
133—Twin Falls (152)
132—Lexington (108)
131—Carlsbad (74) The lowest overall team (333) to make the DOPE list. EDIT--Oops. There's one lower that is in the top 100.
130—Edison (118)
129—Valdosta (129) Yep. Precisely where they were two years ago.
128—Miami Beach (115)
127—Omaha (135)
126—Pullman (137)
125—Norfolk (52)
124—Minot (97)
123—Champaign (111)
122—Wingrove Lake (125)
121—Roseville (100)
120—Oklahoma City (NR)
119—Oak Park (NR) Two 5 round Cup appearances.
118—Wheeling (91)
117—Brookview (122)
116—Elyria (113)
115—Sunnyvale (67)
114—Durham (73)
113—Renton (107)
112—Midwest City (NR)
111—Lewiston (130)
110—Brooklyn (103)
109—Allentown (NR)
108—East Lansing (128)



Updated Friday, May 11 2018 @ 3:10:57 am PDT
Jaybrams
Joined: 04/05/2018
Posts: 97

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Read through the old thread. Looking forward to this. Are you manually data-mining everything? If so, props!

And before you get to far along, without revealing your calculation, what about adding the total score of each team so we can see how close different teams are? If not, no biggie, but it'd be an interesting add.
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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Yes, Jay, I go through each team individually and do the calculation. That's precisely why I limit it to around 140 teams. I end up doing around 200 teams that pass the eye test and stop around the 400th official ranked team.

The main reason I started doing this was because the official Prestige here only awards you points for winning a division or the Cup. Obviously that only gives one-sixth of the site points every year. When I first did this two seasons ago, there was a team, Wilkes-Barre, that didn't have a single division crown over the previous ten seasons. They also averaged 2+ advances in the Cup for the decade. That meant they earned zero official prestige despite being in II and III the entire time. That's just wrong! I decided to give them an unofficial cure and weigh in on the top teams, looking only at recent, ten season history. And DOPE was born.

As you noticed, I have intentionally kept the DOPE scores a secret. I do think there is something to be said about perspective, though. I will say that almost every team from 50+ on the list would move up if they improved their league position even one spot any year. That's how close they are. It becomes a little more spaced out as they approach the top. The top four this time around are extremely close and are clearly ahead of all the others. Giving the number one team a base score of 100, here's how the list would score:

#1--100
#2--100
#3--99
#4--97
#5--88
#10--80
#67--50
#97--40
#144--32

That shows that there is a bigger point difference between 1 and 10 than there is from 67 to 144! In other words, it's extremely crowded near the bottom of the list and not so much at the top. The exception, as I mentioned, is at the pinnacle where there's a fierce battle to claim the number one spot.


Updated Saturday, May 12 2018 @ 1:23:38 am PDT
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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Here we go with the next grouping. It will probably be a couple days before I post more. Spend some time with those special women on Sunday!

107--Tempe (80)
106--Loveland (NR)
105--Rock Hill (76)
104--Lake Charles (119)
103--Belleville (102) String of 8 consecutive Cup advances past the Group stage snapped in 2035.
102--Vero Beach (100)
101--Brownsville (110)
100--Euclid (144) Last 6 cups 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 round advancements.
99--Plymouth (117)
98--Hampton (108)
97--Bronx (124) 4 league championships!
96--Chesapeake (93)
95--Port Arthur (88)
94--El Monte (99)
93--Philadelphia (105)
92--Glendale (66)
91--Bolingbrook (NR)
90--Ashland (59)
89--Rancho Cucamonga (98)
88--Mount Vernon (55)
87--Folsom (84)
86--Pasadena (51)
85--Gastonia (85) Another no changer.
84--Newton (NR)
83--Charleston (101)
82--Weston (56) 3rd highest percentage of points from Cup play.
81--Ft. Lauderdale (70)
80--North Charleston (NR)
79--Des Plaines (81)
78--Fishers (109) I think they're the lowest ranked team to ever win the Cup. They finished 101st that season.
crackit
Joined: 05/15/2013
Posts: 315

Anchorage Lawless
IV.4

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Hi and best wishes all from a team once in the Legends (2017-20). We finished 2nd in our division to MrTwoPlums's Red Raiders three times, we even came close once.

I haven't been as active on the forums (I guess there's not much to talk about when you're losing); so I have only just picked up on this DOPE update and hadn't even spotted Mike's excellent work on the earlier thread.

Applewood Crossing's magnificent climb up the leagues has only been matched by their painfully slow slide back down them, being relegated five times in ten years and finally down to Div VI this season (Note: I think we were sitting in first before system went down but didn't manage to rebuild as effectively as we did first time round).

I assume it is because there are more teams about now that I am finding it much harder to rebuild a dynasty. I don't think we've drafted particularly well and I don't invest the time to spot good signings on a regular basis.

However, I am still enjoying the challenge but a long way from making a return.

What I was touched by was Newtman's kind words in the previous thread. Thank you Newt, I am pleased to have been of use to at least one team, even if it hasn't been the As recently.

Sorry for hijacking your thread Mike, just wanted to say "hi", which I have now done :)

Updated Saturday, May 12 2018 @ 8:09:05 am PDT
Haselrig
Joined: 04/13/2014
Posts: 2790

Novi Doubledays
III.4

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Not just one team, Crackit. You helped me a ton when I first started playing. Always appreciated your posts. If I haven't said it elsewhere, thank you.
wickersty
Joined: 05/11/2017
Posts: 1002

Deadwood Perambulators
II.1

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@crackit though I’m sorry that you came out on the wrong end of the division standings last season, I’m not *that* glad, because I managed to overtake you before seasons end.

In all serious, our LL5 division really came down to the wire last season... what a dramatic and stressful ending. Always respected and feared you as an opponent.
Jaybrams
Joined: 04/05/2018
Posts: 97

Inactive

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Thanks for the context above Mike. Very good stuff. Like a lot of baseball fans, i'm a bit of stats junkie, so i tend to build my own ratings and weight systems for my players in these types of games. I have my own hitting and pitching indexes that i'm using to build my squad... i'm too much of a newb to know if it is working yet ---i guess i'll know if in a couple seasons i crack your top 140--- but my point is that I have great respect for the time you're putting into this, even if i'm wildly curious about the calcs you're using :-).

Speaking of Applewood (@crackit) and Deadwood (@wickersty) ... i was part of the V.8 West Div in 2035 and it was quite back and forth until the end. I had no idea i was standing in the midst of a legend @crackit ;-).
crackit
Joined: 05/15/2013
Posts: 315

Anchorage Lawless
IV.4

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Thanks for the nice messages guys.

BTW Mike, I really appreciated the very smart write up for the #3 Cedar Rapids, as it very nearly passed me by until I remembered the owner's name. Good fun :-)
motko
Joined: 09/06/2014
Posts: 358

Nauvoo The Great Horned Owl
IV.6

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Thanks MukilteoMike for creating interesting stuff. Why not to add more comments of the teams especially the higher ranked ones.

Too bad with Honorable mentioned -Lincoln Park. Team was relinquished on last season. They peaked and now its the time to fall.

I think its funny that Margate was at 58 on the last DOPE and last season they were what, 2nd in Legends?
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

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First in the East, lost the playoffs, but still a first place finish. That is the point of DOPE though, to look at a medium term decade instead of just the individual season. I won Legends East the season before Mike, and then I relegated the very next season, it is incredibly tight at the top and how Seca, kladu, and MrTwoPlums maintained their success is just made that much more impressive.

Updated Monday, May 14 2018 @ 7:34:08 am PDT
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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Regarding my Margate Magicians, I wasn't in Legends at the time of the original DOPE. In fact, my re-build dropped me down to IV. I make a pretty decent jump this time with four consecutive division titles.

About write-ups, I make them extremely brief for the non-top teams for two reasons. The first is time. The second is because the teams are so close they rarely have things that make them stand out from one another, at least not at a quick glance.


Updated Monday, May 14 2018 @ 10:44:45 am PDT
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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77—Moore (68)
76—Santa Clarita (NR) I think the lowest overall ranked team (361) to make the DOPE list.
75—Lansing (57)
74—Los Angeles (95)
73—Anaheim (79)
72—Appleton (53)
71—Apex (NR) The most DOPE team that didn’t make the list two seasons ago that didn’t win a Cup (you know who that is and who is coming up shortly, right?).
70—Apple Valley (60) Odd that 3 teams in a row start with AP.
69—Columbus (69) Yet another team without DOPE movement.
68—West Applewood (83)
67—State College (31)
66—Burlington (33)

65—Wilkes-Barre (38) Once again one of my favorite DOPE teams because,once again, they have no official prestige for the last decade. Still the poster child for DOPE. There may be others like them, but I looked to them immediately because they were the most DOPE team in the original without official prestige.

64—Beachside Woods (47)
63—Grand Blanc (67)
62—Richmond (72) 6 seasons of 4+ Cup rounds.
61—Milpitas (85)
60—Bloomington (112) The biggest upward DOPE jump by a team from the original list.
59—Clearwater (40)
58—Napa (41)
57—Warsaw (74)
56—Brookview Island (90)
55—Harrisonburg (54)
54—Missoula (73)
53—Davis (75)
52—Redwood City (39)
51—Sunrise (34)
50—Terre Haute (NR) Courtesy of back-to-back Cup wins, they are the most DOPE team that didn’t make the cut in 2034. They are the only team that didn’t get more league points than Cup points. For the vast majority of teams, it’s not even close.


Updated Monday, May 14 2018 @ 10:50:43 am PDT
JJNZ
Joined: 12/09/2014
Posts: 1580

Yakima Monster
III.3

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Genuinely surprised that Missoula climbed as high as 54th,i suspect that's more to do with bad luck from the teams that were ahead of me than anything else
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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You're not giving yourself enough credit. You replaced a first and second place finish in V with a year in Legends and a division crown in II. That's a pretty good move for the better.
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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Here's the last large grouping before hitting the Top Twelve. This group is spreading out a bit, but not nearly as much as the final dozen. Amazingly, 8 of the teams between 49 and 13 jumped up 20 or more spots. That's not an easy feat at this level.

49—Bellflower (42) Advanced in the Cup all 10 seasons. I think they’re the lowest ranked team to do so.
48—Muncie (62)
47—Bellevue (65) Was in III for 8 seasons before moving up. Now they’re at their highest ranking ever at 27.
46—Springfield (29)
45—Minneapolis (61)
44—Scranton (64)
43—New Britain (49) 3-0 in the playoffs.
42—Frankfort (46)
41—Jeffersonville (71)
40—Bay City (37)
39—Oceanview Woods (44)
38—Aberdeen (32)
37—Davenport (43)
36—San Mateo (82) Shot up thru the DOPE rankings, a whopping 46 places. Back to back Cup runner-up (2033 and 2034)
35—Bismarck (63) Back to back Cup runner-up (2031 and 2032). Weird that these teams went back to back, back to back, and are now back to back here, huh?
34—Salem (13)
33—Jacksonville (30)
32—Augusta (23)
31—Apache Junction (35)
30—Huntington (26)
29—Roanoke (50)
28—Lauderhill (20)
27—Topeka (17)
26—Denver (28) Finished 2nd in III four of the last 5 years.
25—Haverhill (19)
24—Margate (58)
23—Sioux City (14)
22—Sumter (18)
21—Laredo (27)
20—Fall River (24) Has a streak of 6 seasons advancing exactly 3 rounds in the Cup.
19—Monterey (48) Was 347th overall after 2026. Now they’re ranked 5th!
18—Reading (11) 3-time 6 round advancer in the Cup.
17—Raleigh (22)
16—Kalamazoo (36)
15—Manhattan (12)
14—Buffalo (6)
13—Seattle (4)
amalric7
Joined: 01/20/2016
Posts: 2238

New York Lancers
V.4

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Still can't crack the list!
PrivateSnowflake
Joined: 01/06/2015
Posts: 1168

Bloomington Thunder
Legends

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Despite moving up into Legends I'm not sure I'll improve too much on my 73rd ranking if at all. I fully expect Bloomington to overtake me

Almost, JJ! :)
FreddyTheEye
Joined: 11/11/2014
Posts: 625

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wow, it's very tough to crack the top 25. I see a lot of legends teams and legendary managers from 25-13.
motko
Joined: 09/06/2014
Posts: 358

Nauvoo The Great Horned Owl
IV.6

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Which 12 teams left?
Brewnoe
Joined: 03/25/2014
Posts: 818

Fall River Naughty Dawgs
IV.5

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20—Fall River (24) Has a streak of 6 seasons advancing exactly 3 rounds in the Cup.



Had ... went splat last season (both times)
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

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In no particular order the remaining teams should be:

College Station
Waterloo
Birmingham
Broomfield
Alexandria
Santa Monica
Battle Creek
Novi
Edmond
Cedar Rapids
Thunder Bay
?

I know at least 9 or 10 of the 11 I listed will be in the 12, but without looking at LL IV I couldn't find who else was missing.
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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I doubt you'll be surprised about the III team. They're a bastion of value. And sorry about the wrong letter and tense of that verb, Brewnoe. It was a typo.

The next group will be added overnight...I think. I can't find my Broken Bat folder on my computer. Where in the heck has it gone?



Updated Wednesday, May 16 2018 @ 10:26:32 pm PDT
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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While the break from the pack here isn’t quite as clear as it was in 2034, it still exists to a lesser degree. I present to you eight of the dirty dozen.



12—Alexandria (25) In 2026 they were in V. They won their division 5 of the next 7 seasons and were Legend Champions in 2032.

11—Thunder Bay (5) The most storied franchise in Broken Bat history has advanced 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 rounds in Cup play over the last 10 seasons. They won their Legends division three times.

10—Edmond (21) They claimed 4 league championships and a Cup crown. Now they’re in Legends looking for the title.

9—Fort Worth (15) Another 4-league championship team. They’ve also advanced 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 rounds in the Cup over the last 10 seasons.

8—Cedar Rapids (3) 2nd or 3rd in II the last 7 seasons. Legend champs in 2027.

7—Novi (9) You don't want to play the Doubledays in the playoffs. They've gone 3 for 3 in the last ten seasons (and 9 for 10 in their entire history).

6—Broomfield (16) 5+ rounds in the Cup 5 times! And, naturally, 5 division championships.

5—Battle Creek (10) Legend champions in 2034. Their end-of-season ranking the last three seasons—2nd, 1st, 2nd.


motko
Joined: 09/06/2014
Posts: 358

Nauvoo The Great Horned Owl
IV.6

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The missing team might be Orlando. The owner quitted playing brokenbat...
JJNZ
Joined: 12/09/2014
Posts: 1580

Yakima Monster
III.3

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So the top 4 must go something like (4-3-2-1)

Santa Monica
Waterloo
Birmingham
College Station

Seca needs to stop tanking in the cup! ;)
FreddyTheEye
Joined: 11/11/2014
Posts: 625

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My guess is :
1)Birmingham slightly better last 2 seasons of DOPE than Waterloo
2)Waterloo
3)College Staion up from 7th and closing the gap but still need another season or two to catch the leaders as we were still in div III 10 seasons ago
4)Santa Monica
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

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Agree with Freddy.

@motko, nope when Mig quit the team got moved to Providence. The Orlando franchise you're thinking of won't be one of the top 4, I can guarantee that, because I passed them going down on my way up about 8 seasons ago. No way they are still this high in the rankings. They may be one of those teams already listed though, as I have no idea if they moved again after going to Providence.

Edit: Looks like I was dead on with my 11, and forgot Fort Worth.

Updated Thursday, May 17 2018 @ 8:06:29 am PDT
MukilteoMike
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Here we go!

The Final Four are easily the elite. Their resumes over the last ten seasons blow everyone else away. Like last time, there is no subjectivity here. It’s all in the numbers and they’re ridiculously tight. In case you missed my earlier post that gives a glimpse into exactly how they fare compared to the others, I’ll repeat the info here and even throw in a few more teams. If we give a score of 100 to the #1 team, here are the rounded scores:

#1—100
#2—100
#3—99
#4—97
#5—88
#6—85
#13—77
#36—60

As that shows, the top four teams are extremely close together and have a sizeable gap between themselves and the next best teams. Congratulations to the killer four.

4—Waterloo (2) There is something very strange about these results. Waterloo has a Cup crown, yet it is the Cup that drops them to fourth because they have five seasons where they didn’t make it out of the Group Stage. I have a feeling that was largely by design, but those missing points cost them DOPE. They’ve been in Legends the entire ten seasons and have three division victories and two Legend titles. They've finished every season over the last decade no worse than 6th in the overall rankings. That’s just not even right, except it is.

3—Santa Monica (8) Five division titles and two league championships are super sweet. Their Cup play has been awesome and largely got them to this spot. Over the past ten seasons I’m fairly sure they have done something that is unique in all of Broken Bat--they have every possible outcome in the Cup other than winning it.

2—Birmingham (1) In 2034 they basically won the DOPE title in extra innings. This time it was just as close, only they ended up on the short side. They’ve been in Legends the full ten seasons and only had one season with less than 85 wins. They went 1-1 in the playoffs, claiming one Legends title. They had six straight seasons where they finished in the overall rankings in the top three. Did that register, reader? Read it again. Sheesh.

1—College Station (7) Some, including The Eye, may be surprised about this result since their first four seasons were in III. However, they’ve been Kong the last four seasons…

In the Cup—Champions, 2 rounds, 3 rounds, 6 rounds.
Legends Placement—Division Winner, Legends Champion, Second Place, Legends Champion.
End of Season Ranking—3rd, 1st, 4th, 1st.

Nothing else needs to be said, except wow. Well, along with…I don’t know how anyone is going to unseat them for the 2038 edition since they will get to drop off two League III performances. The others in the top five have a shot, but even they have a daunting task at hand.

Congratulations, Freddy. You’re the biggest DOPE in the land!
Breestis
Joined: 05/28/2015
Posts: 9

Lenexa Titans
VI.10

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That was a fantastic read. Thanks for putting in the time to do this.

Congrats to all the teams who made the list, and to College Station of being the DOPEst.


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