Help

Forum >> Help >> What type of sample size is needed to judge player performance?  

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function
#43885	01/13/2017 7:35:42 am		Ignore
BrianV Joined: 02/08/2016 Posts: 125 Inactive	Michael Mason was my much anticipated 'Left Fielder of the Future' through the minors. Last season, he got the promotion recommendation. He hit .260/.326/.387 over 200-ish plate appearances, which I was happy with given the unexpectedly difficult pitching in my LL5 league. This season, I'm back down to LL6 (and doing terribly). Mason, who I've had such high hopes for, is hitting .184/.239/.333 in 145 plate appearances. At this point, he's hitting .229/.291/.365 in 345 career PA. This is not the profile of a star slugger, which was my expectation for him, and what I expect given his ratings. At what point would you make the call to stop giving a player like this more chances? He plays a position that needs a power bat. He has the ratings for it. But he's been a virtual black hole in my lineup for almost a full season's worth of games now. Updated Friday, January 13 2017 @ 7:39:31 am PST
#43891	01/13/2017 9:13:05 am		Ignore
el_jefe_loco Joined: 02/25/2015 Posts: 73 Inactive	You are approaching a significant-enough sample size to get a read on Mason. I would usually say half a season or so... My observation is that guys with "good" hitting scouting traits or worse (i.e. 14 HIT or below) tend to be pretty inconsistent. They can have productive years followed by miserable ones, and streaky within the same season too. Here's a guy who was on my club for a long time, similar offensive build to Mason: Nicky Freeman . Check out how much his BA and stat line bounced around over his career. In LL4, he ranged from .216 to .294. In LL5, .248 to .331. I had Freeman anywhere from the clean-up spot to 8th in the batting order, depending on his swings in form. My personal view is that a guy with only a "good" hitting report may not be consistent enough to be a middle-of-order guy. I think Mason can be a serviceable LF, but maybe not a star.
#43894	01/13/2017 10:15:29 am		Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9602 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Its worth noting that many players do quite poorly until they are fully developed.
#43906	01/13/2017 5:09:19 pm
admin Joined: 01/27/2010 Posts: 4985 Administrator	I think the sample size should be different for a fully developed player versus one that still developing. If the player hasn't maxed out his potential, it's hard to say if his performance is a true measure or if he hasn't developed fully yet. For a veteran, that's not really the case. Steve
#43930	01/14/2017 2:48:08 pm		Ignore
terryhumphreys Joined: 01/20/2014 Posts: 103 Athens Gold IV.5	I suspect that some players are more prone to the well known sophomore jinx. It could be a hidden trait.
#44145	01/20/2017 5:58:03 pm		Ignore
BrianV Joined: 02/08/2016 Posts: 125 Inactive	Mason is on a hot streak! At 145 Abs for the season, he had a line of .184/.239/.333. Now, at 196 ABs, his line is at .219 / .280 / .408. In his last 45ABs, he's been hitting .311/.380/.644. He's been the best hitter I have! The season as a whole is not what I've been expecting from him... but he's gone a long ways towards redeeming it!
#44209	01/22/2017 12:06:27 pm		Ignore
Crazy Li Joined: 01/25/2015 Posts: 879 Inactive	Yeah, be patient with growing players. It seems he's trending upwards now. I've had some of my best players start out miserable every year before starting to tear the cover off the ball in the second half to balance out to good end-year numbers. Keep giving this guy regular playing time until he stops growing. Then you can look at a full year at that mark and see what you think.
#44214	01/22/2017 2:18:49 pm		Ignore
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	Might not hurt to lower your expectations a little bit too. +1 hitting, +1 BC, +2 PD, +2 Power, +1 defense would be a legitimate projection for his end goal based on his comments. 14/18/15/18/11 would mean a high slugging potential, but lower overall ops numbers unless he is estimated on the low end of his true contact hitting ability. I think personally that he will struggle at times to maintain a .250's average. If you take his average obp as +.65 to +.7 of that, you're looking at mostly .320's, and power probably can't get to the .500+ mark based on the amount of hits. Long story short, he's not really going to be a prototypical #3 hitter unless he outperforms his ratings, which I would give somewhat low odds to (maybe 1 in every 5 or 6 players overachieves). In most cases, you should assume that this guy is a #5-#6 hitter against righties, and the #4-#5 bat against lefties if he holds to fairly generic splits. Updated Monday, January 23 2017 @ 10:49:06 pm PST
#44225	01/22/2017 8:43:06 pm		Ignore
Slug5373 Joined: 12/23/2014 Posts: 376 Inactive	Maybe he's got a strong second half hidden trait. I know a lot of guys on my team must have that because I always seem to start the season kind of meh, but we almost always turn it around starting in inter-league play. But as to whether you should give him more chances, YES!!! A "good" hitter can get to as high as 16 hitting (see my 1st basemen, Art Neal). I don't think your guy will get that high, but he will still be a respectable hitter, especially in divisions 5/6. He would probably be in my lineup here at level 3 because his other hitting ratings are pretty solid. He has shown potential to be a good, not great hitter. But one thing I like about this game is that a player can hit his stride at very different times. I released a player a few seasons ago when he was 26. He still had about 15 SI of growth left, but he had hit under .200 in 350ish PAs the prior season. I released him: big mistake. Two seasons later he was a league MVP. My point is, your guy could take off at any time, maybe he's even starting now! Especially since you said you are having a rough season, there is no reason in the world not to give this guy ABs. One thing I've learned is that this game rewards the patient owners who can withstand a little bit of frustration early in a player's career.
#45204	02/14/2017 8:03:49 am		Ignore
BrianV Joined: 02/08/2016 Posts: 125 Inactive	Just to bring this thread full circle, Michael Mason ended the season at .290/.356/.484 in 448 ABs. With some math, that means that since I started this thread at 145 ABs and a .184 batting average, he's made contact at a .343 average through the rest of the season (303 PAs). I don't expect his second half performance to be his new normal, but if he can level out somewhere around where this season's average ended up, I'll be pretty happy. He hopefully has a handful of SI points still to go - I'd like to see him max out his scouting report with 15 hitting and 20 power, and the last point before his cap into PD....

| |

Reply