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Carcharoth
Joined: 07/16/2015
Posts: 149

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
Honestly what Mike is said is true. If you want to evaluate your team, use League stats. Cup games are just for fun, especially when you're in the lower leagues. And a bit of bonus training I suppose. And when it comes to small sample size (SSS), I believe (?) that it takes ~300 ABs for batting average to stabilize? Trying to read into 20 games of data is not helpful. I only look at Cup stats for fun, and never to evaluate a player.

Yes the gap between 6 and 5 can be absurd... remember that the vast majority of the teams in this game are in LL VI, so you can't really tell where on the spectrum your league falls. And yes, players will suddenly have their production fall off a cliff when they face competition that is too good for them. When you mention SI, remember that the numbers are not everything because they are not 100% representative; eventually you have to evaluate your players based on performance. The best path forward is to work with and refine your team development strategy. Every team hits the ceiling at some point. I have bounced between IV and V a total of 5 times, and only this year has my pitching focus begun to bear some rewards.

Lastly, with regards to trends/streaks: there are no effects of hot/cold streaks in this game. They are purely a measure of how the player has been performing recently. They do not affect future performance.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9595

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
I largely ignore cup stats.
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
If you really look at leagues then you will notice the difference between levels. LL VI you are lucky (or unlucky) if you are in a league with two active owners who know what they are doing. LL V the majority of owners know what they are doing, and the roster has to be good enough to avoid relegation for the first time (no relegation from VI). LL IV in my one trip through it didn't seem much more competitive than LL V, and so a really good LL V team tends to start to "slingshot" up from there. LL III is a mixed bag, it is getting more competitive as some teams that have spent time in Legends and II have started getting thrown in with teams that may be less experienced. LL II is insanely competitive, and is a very real step up from III. Legends, in my first season, seems to be roughly on par with II, with it being only a slight step up in difficulty from my estimation.

Note: These are very broad generalizations and do not reflect the competitiveness of individual owners and teams. I faced a really good owner in my time in LL VI, and have faced new owners who didn't know what they were doing who got assigned to upper league teams.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9595

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
I think that is mostly just your experience. I've been mostly dominant in II, but easily dispatched in Legends. So from my perspective the biggest leap is from II to Legends.

Updated Saturday, August 26 2017 @ 2:05:26 pm PDT
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
True, it is just my experience. Not to be mean, but you never exactly dominated me in the 3 seasons we were in II.1 together. Also, if you were "dominant" you would have promoted a few more times than you have back to Legends. Holmes underestimated the competition in II.1 last season and it is why he ended up demoting a second straight season after being in Legends for about 10 seasons.

None of this is meant as trash talk, but I think a few forum posters vastly underestimate the competition at LL II the past few years compared to Legends. There is more parity than there used to be.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9595

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
We were only in II at the same time for two seasons. First season I came in first with +221, while you were in 5th. Last season my team did in fact do very horribly (thus the mostly) and you came in first with +90. Worth noting that I was actually in first place last season until my team imploded in the last week. I'd say +221 is pretty dominant.

2026 II.2 2 +109
2027 II.2 1 +80
2028 Legends 5 -91
2029 II.1 1 +221
2030 Legends 5 -31
2031 II.1 3 +117

Pretty stark delta between +200 and -90.

EDIT: This is also your first time in Legends. I'd try to get at least one season under you belt before you declare how easy Legends is...

And Holmes didn't underestimate the competition. He demoted because the Isos have been sliding over the last few years. I barely lost out to him both times I was in Legends. Its hard to maintain a Legends quality team for multiple seasons. He did an amazing job lasting as long as he did, but now he has to rebuild, and its pretty normal for teams to slide down a few levels when that happens.


Updated Sunday, August 27 2017 @ 5:00:15 pm PDT
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
Fair enough, but 1) I didn't say Legends was easy, I said LL II was better than people like you are giving it credit for, and 2) Holmes actually said at the start of the 2032 season,
"

Oh, several people I know from the forums in my new league. Good to see you around after being expelled from paradise.
Doesn't look like the environment is much less competitive than up there, I'd say. Since I'm not too worried about falling through the bottom, I'll keep focusing on my partial rebuild, so you mey see yome young guys in Manhattan...

"

I quoted him in full, I had forgotten he said the line before the line about not being worried about falling through the bottom, which was the basis for what I said about him underestimating LL II.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9595

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
I was (and still am) disagreeing with your statement that Legends is on par with LL-II. Looking at my team history (above) shows a pretty huge delta between LL-II and Legends.
amalric7
Joined: 01/20/2016
Posts: 2237

New York Lancers
V.4

Broken Bat Baseball
To get back to the OP...

I know what everyone will say...he's 34. Yeah, but that kind of drop off is insane. I don't care how old a player is.

You might not, but the game does. Players can start declining at 29 (even 28 in some cases), and sometimes they can fall off a cliff from one season to the next. Add in the fact that Lee is a 34-yo with 87 SI, who enjoyed a resurgent season at age 33 - you should thank your lucky stars for that, but the fact he hasn't produced at all this season should come as no surprise, especially now that you've moved up a level. Wise on the other hand has had a rough start, and I'd expect him to come around even though he's 32.

Your biggest issue (certainly in League play) is that atrocious .233 AVG and 12-24 record against RHP. And you hit just .255 against righties last season. You're (almost) never going to do well with issues like that.
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
I have a guy who has dropped off a cliff, too. Trotta was phenomenal last season with a 3.15 ERA. He supposedly only dropped 4 SI, but his ERA has ballooned to 5.31. If he doesn't show anything over the next three series, he's gone.


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