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Forum >> Help >> Waiver Claim Success Rate  

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function
#62302	12/28/2018 5:08:09 am	Feb 19th, 2039	Ignore
Longviewess Joined: 09/23/2018 Posts: 111 Frederick Keys III.3	I am approaching 0-30 in waiver claims so far this season. Is that a normal success rate for such claims? It spans the range of players with 3-5 total claims up to those with 50+. You would think that the law of averages would equal sucess at claiming at least one of the numerous players with 3-5 total claims would have been successful.
#62304	12/28/2018 10:39:49 am	Feb 19th, 2039	Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9588 Haverhill Halflings III.1	First off, the Law of Averages is a well known fallacy, not a law. As near as I can tell, every single person on these boards feels they get gypped by the waiver odds. Pretty sure that just means humans aren't really good at understanding odds. So you are in good company I've gone through much longer streaks even putting claims on guys with 2-3 claims. I just never expect to win any waivers, that way I am happy if I land someone Just as an example, the odds of rolling a 6 on 6 six-sided dice is...? 67%, not 100%. Because odds are not additive. Doing something with a 1/6 chance does not mean it "should" happen once every six tries. Sure its likely, but 67% is still not very strong odds. And then off course odds don't care about history either. Just because you had 30 failed claims, doesn't mean you improve your odds on the next 5 claim guy. You still only have a 20% chance of landing him, which is VERY low. Updated Friday, December 28 2018 @ 10:51:08 am PST

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