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michaeltodd2
Joined: 02/20/2018
Posts: 325

Paradise Valley Cubs
III.3

Broken Bat Baseball
Okay...thanks gang. Maybe i shouldn't have typed 25 yr old. I'm trying to figure out if i pick up someone off the waiver/free agent list, how to project their growth over a few years? If i grab a 23 yr old in the minors with....say 60 skill points, do i have enough time to get him into the 90's before he's 27 or 28? Which then got me thinking, well, how many skill points will a player acquire a year on average? If i can only squeeze out 2-4 points a year for a NP, i won't consider picking a player like him up...but if i could get an average of 5 or 6, then maybe. I'm not always too articulate in how i pose my questions, so i hope this extra info helps explain my thought process.

Updated Thursday, January 31 2019 @ 1:42:04 pm PST
michaeltodd2
Joined: 02/20/2018
Posts: 325

Paradise Valley Cubs
III.3

Broken Bat Baseball
10 a year for pitchers huh...that's good to know.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9568

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
In my experience, young pitchers getting 200 innings will gain more than 10, while some position players will still fall short of 5 with all those at bats. Starting pitchers develop very quickly (usually in 2-3 years) after they hit the majors.

Also, 26 year olds can gain fine in the minors. I have had a ton of guys like that. Even older players can gain in the minors if they are severely under-developed, but if a guy can't make the major squad by the time he is 27 its really probably time to cut bait. Younger is always better, but if you have a rough time in the draft (like me), you can get older guys to become useful.

Don Tipton - promoted at 27.
Francisco Cantu - promoted at 27.
"Yogi" Barrera - promoted at the very end of his 26 year old season.
"Teppō" Ishii - promoted in the middle of his 26 year old season.
P.J. Howell - promoted in the middle of his 26 year old season.

Note that Howell is still improving at 30 years old. You'll find some older under developed guys will still be improving in some skills while dropping in other.



Updated Thursday, January 31 2019 @ 5:26:15 pm PST
wuggla
Joined: 05/10/2013
Posts: 1058

Colorado Springs Vultures
V.14

Broken Bat Baseball
Player gained 4si today. SS hideyuki kuroda gaining 1 point in hit,BC,PD,pow.
Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 5193

Waterloo Dinosaurs
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
I'm trying to figure out if i pick up someone off the waiver/free agent list, how to project their growth over a few years? If i grab a 23 yr old in the minors with....say 60 skill points, do i have enough time to get him into the 90's before he's 27 or 28?

Players seem to have a hidden attribute that affects the rate at which they make gains / advance levels in the minors. I call it "talent".

This is something you have to watch for in waivers / free agent guys. A lot of times the reason why their manager has cut them is because they judge them to have low talent.

Because of this, the average player acquired through waivers / free agency is going to gain SI more slowly than your average player from the overall player base.

A low talent guy can still be successful. They often need to have very good starting SI to compensate for smaller gains.

Example:
Let's say you find a 23 year old AA player with a "good hitting" (12-14 cap) comment.

- the player has 8 hitting and advanced from A to AA in 1.5 seasons. This is decent risk. Average talent gives him a reasonable chance of reaching 12-14 hitting.

- the player has 8 hitting and advanced from A to AA in 2.5 seasons. This is very high risk. The player has poor talent, and a low chance of reaching his suggested cap.

- the player has 11 hitting and advanced from A to AA in 2.5 seasons. This is decent risk. Low talent, but good current skill.

- the player has 11 hitting and advanced from A to AA in 1.5 seasons. This is low risk. Good talent, good current skill. Should make or exceed his cap. This is the kind of guy you are hoping to stumble over when you look through the lists.
michaeltodd2
Joined: 02/20/2018
Posts: 325

Paradise Valley Cubs
III.3

Broken Bat Baseball
That's good info...thanks!
Hayseed
Joined: 02/20/2018
Posts: 289

Hood River Hawks
V.2

Broken Bat Baseball
I got a waiver guy from the Pac-12/Japanese Lg here. But not sure if I should put him in AAA for his 25 year old season (no AAA experience yet), but he is playing ok when in Maj. Do you find these Pac-12 get stunted from the unusual development steps?
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9568

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
There was some weird stuff happening with those test leagues, so only Steve really knows. I'm pretty conservative because so many of my players end up stunting anyhow. So I would probably put him down in AAA for the rest of the season myself.
amalric7
Joined: 01/20/2016
Posts: 2235

New York Lancers
IV.2

Broken Bat Baseball
I'd send Baggett down to AAA, because no playing time at that level for a developing player is never a good thing. Plus he's a OF only, not a 2B with that fielding (no positive fielding report).
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9568

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
The trick is that he is a test league guy. The waivers are flooded with these guys right now, as I think Steve is clearing out all these test players. Most of the test league guys have developed fine with no time in AAA. I think it was an experiment Steve was running.

He isn't a good 2B, but I wouldn't be afraid to play him there at least part-time. His Fielding growth has been good. Could still gain a few points. Really depends on position needs. Sometimes you need to be creative. "Pistachio" Smith has a similar build. I mostly use him in CF, but he is also my backup 2B.

I don't think he is worth training in the OF at this point. He'll make just as many errors out there without position experience. He is already maxed at 2B experience. If you put him down I'd either keep him playing 2B to maintain the high level of skill (helps compensate for lower Fielding), or have him play 3B so he has another position he can spot in case of emergency. Really depends on what the rest of your squad looks like, and where you can most use extra coverage. Its not his optimal build, but he doesn't make a horrible 2B or 3B.



Updated Sunday, February 3 2019 @ 9:16:47 am PST


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