Broken Bat - Help: 1st season follow-up

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Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date

#79864	01/24/2021 7:34:18 am	Oct 16th, 2048
NotGood88 Joined: 08/28/2020 Posts: 510 Prattville Black Cats II.2	For sure De Smet is better. But still, 92 SI Alfonso Alberro (2.69 ERA, 67 IP) is putting up a much better ERA than De Smet (3.87 ERA, 220+ IP).

#79865	01/24/2021 7:49:25 am	Oct 16th, 2048
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Some of that is just RNG luck. Alberro is having a very good year. But also, SI/POT isn't a good measure of how good a player is. You'll notice that half of my pitching staff is POT 12s, and yet we have one of the best staffs in III.1. Picking players based on SI/POT alone has always been a bad idea. Even worse now that there is fuzziness in POT. I have cut numerous POT 14s in favor of better performing POT 12s. At the end of the day performance is all that matters. And a POT 15 who can "never be a good hitter", is still a waste of space on your roster regardless of SI/POT. Updated Sunday, January 24 2021 @ 7:52:36 am PST

#79866	01/24/2021 7:53:21 am	Oct 16th, 2048
NotGood88 Joined: 08/28/2020 Posts: 510 Prattville Black Cats II.2	Well, yeah, I know that, I focus on CON and MOV, which is why my 86 SI middle reliever, Ojeda, is doing OK (and pretty good for 86 SI, 3-4, 1 SV, 3 HLD, 69 GM, 52 IP, 4.33 ERA), and also why he’s still on my team even with a crazy 5 Velo. It’s the 12 MOV and 16 CON that helps him

#79871	01/24/2021 4:45:30 pm	Oct 18th, 2048
JV-Tosshin Joined: 11/11/2020 Posts: 297 Biloxi Thresher Sharks V.15	Just a quick last question here before I let this thread die: Rock, you say you can see Bishop contribute... But as what? Putting into consideration that I'll like heighten the back fence, because just in general, I've given up far too many HRs. Updated Sunday, January 24 2021 @ 4:54:48 pm PST

#79872	01/24/2021 4:51:59 pm	Oct 19th, 2048
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I'd use him as a Starter. Just hopefully he is your #4 or #5 guy. Its less critical when Starters give up a HR. You definitely don't want a guy like that in the back of your bullpen.

#79873	01/24/2021 5:00:31 pm	Oct 19th, 2048
JV-Tosshin Joined: 11/11/2020 Posts: 297 Biloxi Thresher Sharks V.15	Edit: Also asking because now, as soon as he got switched into some kind of LR/MR role, he went to "very hot" in form. He was "very cold" when I started this thread. The man is an enigma. He just went a scoreless 6 innings, giving up 2 hits and 1 walk. I honestly don't know what to make of him anymore. I cannot read his statline and figure out what to do with him. Might shift him down as you suggest. Most of my starters have some weird statlines and two of them are getting old, so maybe he can get back in once, say, Castaneda or Schaeffer can't hang anymore. Or if Paredes can't pick up. He was 6-1 after 7 starts, but... I think my confusion about my starting core is well documented by now, I cannot get a read on those guys, except that Paredes is inconsistent, Castaneda can't get run support to save his life and Schaeffer's stats are WAY too bad to justify either ERA or WHIP, but I applaud the fact that he's still here given that the man can only throw slow balls that move a lot, and that's all he's good at. Man this is a weird sport. So great, haha.

#79875	01/24/2021 6:20:27 pm	Oct 20th, 2048
NotGood88 Joined: 08/28/2020 Posts: 510 Prattville Black Cats II.2	So, Schafer lacks Velo and CoS, but he is, in my opinion, a pretty good pitcher. Bishop is probably a good releiver. One thing to note, there is the 20% variance rule. So Bishop coild actually be as good as a 13 POT thru 17 POT. I think he’s as good as a 14 POT.

#80223	02/16/2021 9:07:49 am	Mar 25th, 2049
michaeltodd2 Joined: 02/20/2018 Posts: 325 Paradise Valley Cubs II.2	Hey Rock, could you elaborate a little about the "scouting error" comment? How does that work?

#80224	02/16/2021 10:04:56 am	Mar 25th, 2049
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Based on some of the numbers we have seen, my best guess is that fuzziness happens in three places: 1) Ratings can be off by 20%. They sharpen over time, but still may never be completely accurate. See my other post on Carrasco. 2) POT can be off by at least 20%. 3) Scouting reports (written) can be off. We have seen guys with no Hitting report go well over 20% of what should be in their range. That can only be explained if both the original written scouting report and the Rating are off in opposite directions. My guess would be somewhere in the 20% range again, but maybe it can be more than that in extreme cases. Take for example Mateo Narváez. With no Movement report his maximum should have been 13 or 14. But his *sharpened* Movement Rating was 18. This is more than 20% off. So it must mean his original written scout report was incorrect. Updated Tuesday, February 16 2021 @ 10:17:04 am PST

#80233	02/17/2021 12:32:14 am	Mar 30th, 2049
michaeltodd2 Joined: 02/20/2018 Posts: 325 Paradise Valley Cubs II.2	Twenty percent. So, a player that has filled out his potential/skill points - for this example a 28yo SS with 13 Potential and 111 skill points - that shows a 15 hitting skill, could actually have a hitting skill in the range of 12 to 18? Though it shows 15? Updated Wednesday, February 17 2021 @ 12:33:01 am PST Updated Wednesday, February 17 2021 @ 12:34:32 am PST Updated Wednesday, February 17 2021 @ 12:35:14 am PST