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newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

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This is one of those things that minor league stats are useful for. If they aren't stealing in the minors they very likely won't steal in the majors. Because my team relies on steals to make up for a lack of power, this is a cuttable offense in my system.
amalric7
Joined: 01/20/2016
Posts: 2235

New York Lancers
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I've been wondering the same thing. I have an 18 SPD guy who in 101AB has 2 SB and 3 CS (he doesn't play much down to his poor batting line thus far). My 12 SPD DH had 6 SB and 5 CS until I gave him the "x" after he was caught twice in one game!

I've seen guys on other teams with similar speed who have like 130 SB in a season, so I've been wondering what gives!
Crazy Li
Joined: 01/25/2015
Posts: 879

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It doesn't matter how fast you are... if you don't understand how to reach pitchers, get good leads, and good jumps... you won't successfully steal many bases. You'll either get caught half of the time or decide not to risk it and just use your speed to get to 3rd on a single.
Spoonerific
Joined: 01/17/2013
Posts: 339

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@CrazyLi so you're telling me that if Pablo Sandoval could do all those things then the fact that he's as slow as frozen molasses won't matter?

I agree those things are important. But that are less of genetic gifts and more of a byproduct of experience. I've read/heard stories of base thieves would jut knew what the pitcher was going to throw and basically stole bases like candy without great leads. {Cause it's hard to make a throw-out from a changeup thrown inside, etc etc}.

But what CrazyLi says is true in this sim, speed is not a modifier for stolen bases at all. 18 Speed or 8 Speed... it doesn't matter.
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

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To an extent, if the 18 speed and 8 speed guy both have good instincts then the 18 speed guy will steal more bases. If only the 8 speed guy has good instincts then he will get more steals than the 18 speed guy. Keep in mind though that speed is also used on stretching hits for extra bases.
admin
Joined: 01/27/2010
Posts: 4980

Administrator
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Pablo Sandoval is 11 for 23 stealing in his career. Of course, he hasn't registered an attempt in the last three years....perhaps as he's become more familiar with Sabermetrics. Please, no fat shaming. :-)


Steve
Spoonerific
Joined: 01/17/2013
Posts: 339

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Pablo Sandoval is 11 for 23 stealing in his career. Of course, he hasn't registered an attempt in the last three years....perhaps as he's become more familiar with Sabermetrics. Please, no fat shaming. :-)



Is "You're killing me, Smalls" still PC to say the 12 times he was caught stealing?
Crazy Li
Joined: 01/25/2015
Posts: 879

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@Spoon: Newt basically answered the question for me.

I never said speed didn't matter at all, but steal skills are important to stealing success. A fast person can fail because he doesn't know what he's doing and a slow person can succeed from having those skills... it's just more of a struggle to do so.

Let's look at it this way:

If a particular base-stealing attempt had a difficulty score of 25 and you have a speed of 18...

You need a "skill" level of 7 or better to successfully "pass" the challenge.

If your speed is only 8, you need a skill of 17 or better instead to succeed.

While 8/17 can succeed, something like 18/5 would fail this particular challenge.

I'm sure the actual engine isn't this simplistic, but that's a basic explanation of what I'm talking about.

Being as slow as molasses does in fact matter, but can be partially offset by base stealing skill. The key difference between BB and real life is that real life players can develop this skill over time by studying pitchers and just experience. I don't know if the hidden value ever changes in BB. But that's hard to say one way or the other since it's hidden and thus we can't track it :p
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

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I've actually noticed some of my base stealers actually have had their percentages go up a little as they got older (late 20s to ~31) even as their speed started to decrease, which does make me wonder if they can't develop the skill. That said, my sample size for this study is ~5 so you can cue the small sample size song for that observation.
Tiger504
Joined: 06/17/2014
Posts: 1314

Kalamazoo Bloody Tigers
IV.7

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One other possibility is "success breeds success". I've noticed my stealers seem to get a little gun shy after they've been cut down in an attempt. I also had a guy with very marginal speed (11) with over 120 career thefts and a single season high over 40. He walked a lot and hit behind a prolific stealer. At first he started getting stolen bases as the trailing runner on double steals and in short order was stealing 2B on his own.
I cannot tell you if he 'learned' or had the knack or it was a combination.


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