Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Whats wrong with this guy?

Forum >> Discussions >> What's wrong with this guy?

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#31843	03/15/2016 11:35:44 am
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Some players simply don't make it. They are a miss. I wouldn't consider them an outlier (think I'm arguing semantics there tho). The combination of their starting SI / age-placement / random element of training / size of their XP pool isn't sufficient to reach their potential. Burke seems consistent with the theory. His SI gains roughly follow a yield curve. But as a 25 year old with 76 SI, he needed average to above average returns on XP. But he was on the low end. Without the rec, there was no "guarantee" his XP would get him there. Every player I have developed who got a major league rec has made his potential bar (so far ). Gallindo is closing in on 50 SI at the major league level. Updated Tuesday, March 15 2016 @ 11:55:25 am PDT

#31849	03/15/2016 12:06:53 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	But there are no recommendations after 25, so you are left in the dark. I get what you are saying, but I will argue the semantic point on this because word choice matters when discussing whether something could have been done. I prefer outlier, because it denotes the the player didn't have a followable curve, and therefore it was not on the owner that he didn't pan out. Miss leaves it more ambiguous as to whether the owner is at fault for not following the recommended development curve. Yes, this matters to me because in one case even a good owner can have a player that doesn't work out, while in the other it is left up to debate whether the owner followed the best course of action. Edit: As I re-read this post I realized maybe I should have stayed in academia, because I just turned this discussion into exactly the sort of pointless semantic debate that many practitioners hate to listen to... Updated Tuesday, March 15 2016 @ 12:11:24 pm PDT

#31850	03/15/2016 12:34:26 pm
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Haha! I only have 1 player on my squad (that came thru my minors) w/o a major league rec. Madrigal. He made it to AAA, but was a 25 yr bootee with 64 SI. I left him in AAA for an extra season. Got him to 72 SI. Meant he was a 26 year old needing 40 SI from XP to cap. He added 13 SI last season, and another 12 so far this season. Pretty good. But its hard to throw innings at him. First off because he is terrible. Secondly, I am "in the dark" on his XP. He might have that last 15 in him. He may not. I suspect he'll be looking for a new team next season, and I'll be watching with interest to see if I made the right call. Edit: Correction, Bustamante also had no rec. He worries me some. Updated Tuesday, March 15 2016 @ 12:55:12 pm PDT

#31852	03/15/2016 1:19:54 pm
Haselrig Joined: 04/13/2014 Posts: 2790 Novi Doubledays III.4	I'd be for changing the auto recommend at 25. Should be up to the owner to cut bait or keep on a guy until he gets the call. As it is, you're driving blind after 25 and it handicaps that decision.

#31853	03/15/2016 1:31:54 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	I haven't been as fortunate as you in that regard. Burke is far from my only 25 year old to get the recommendation, I actually have quite a list. Some have made their caps, some might still make their caps, others have been cut for being bad. A short list: Burke Yamabeepa Keller Pascual Richardson and still on my current roster: Canales Carr Doyle Note: he had been called up for the last half season before I took over as owner, he was not recommended until 25. Guzman Cardona Latham Note: I brought him up for a couple weeks in 2024 as part of my trials to see if I could use my minor league pitchers to fill my last pitching spot, he was not recommended until 25. Included in that list is my current starting RF who likely will never make 15 potential, but might have if I sent him back down. Also, Cardona was left down for most of his age 25 season, and rewarded me by hitting his cap and being the staff ace for three seasons until this season. Doyle has carried the offense the past couple of seasons, and I wouldn't be where I am without him. The point of this list is that guys who get the age 25 call up are a big gamble, but they can pan out as some of the best players in the game, or they can bust and make you really regret the time wasted.

#31854	03/15/2016 1:40:39 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	I'd be for changing the auto recommend at 25. Should be up to the owner to cut bait or keep on a guy until he gets the call. As it is, you're driving blind after 25 and it handicaps that decision. I agree with that, though Steve originally implemented it to keep owners from trying to stick with a guy too long, I think the competition for talent has made it a necessity for us to give those types of guys all the time they need to pan out (maybe change the auto-recommend to age 27 or 28).

#31857	03/15/2016 2:35:18 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Yeah, I think the auto-recommend is supposed to be a bit of a hint for players to stop waiting for the recommendation. I don't really have a problem with it. I think it serves a purpose. I've actually had a few guys make it up without recommendation that filled out fine. Nishmura has always been particularly disappointing to me because he gained 0 SI in 2023 despite pitching over 179 innings. But I see that he just popped a lot near the end of 2022. Which of course made 2023 even more disappointing, LOL. I suppose he fits your theory Seca, but even if he hits his potential its going to be just barely on the low side. On the bright side, he's been pretty effective for me. So maybe the baseball gods took pity and counter balanced his disappointing development with under-scouting Updated Tuesday, March 15 2016 @ 2:35:34 pm PDT

#31858	03/15/2016 2:38:23 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	the competition for talent has made it a necessity for us to give those types of guys all the time they need to pan out While I am guilty of doing that myself. I'm not completely convinced this is a winning strategy. I suspect you can get better overall production from a POT 12 guy who is ready to go at 23, then a POT 15 guy who is still developing at 27... Updated Tuesday, March 15 2016 @ 2:38:58 pm PDT

#31860	03/15/2016 3:15:33 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	But right now we can't make an informed decision on whether it is a good strategy, because all we can do is guess as to when he is actually ready to promote. This is another of those features where even if you don't use it, it won't really hurt you to have it changed either.

#31867	03/15/2016 6:09:41 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Well there are lots of things we have to guess at. That is where we develop strategies. The way I see what to do with those journeymen is part of our strategies. If the game handheld us through the process it would no longer be something that people strategized on, those making people's strategies less unique. Updated Tuesday, March 15 2016 @ 6:17:55 pm PDT