Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Whats Wrong With This Guy?

Forum >> Discussions >> Whats Wrong With This Guy?

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#34475	05/25/2016 11:33:48 am
WizKid Joined: 06/30/2015 Posts: 33 Inactive	Raul Cantu has been a solid D5 starter for me and after we promoted last season is really struggling in D4. What is confusing is I dont see much in his underlying stats to explain it. 17 starts which is not insignificant, only 3 QS. Career best 2.8 K:BB ratio. Not giving up tons of homers. There is a bad gap between his FIP 4.48 and ERA 6.48. Is he just super unlucky? anyone have any ideas?

#34476	05/25/2016 11:39:24 am
brentswagger Joined: 03/22/2016 Posts: 265 Lakeville Bears IV.2	I don't know that I see anything really wrong with him. He hasn't been quite as effective against RHP which has also allowed his WHIP numbers to climb a bit. It's probably a combination of a few more base runners on and a bit of bad luck giving up some more timely hits.

#34479	05/25/2016 1:14:25 pm
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	His HR allowed are a little high. Tho outside of his Cy Young season they have always been a little high. You can get away with that being a little high so long as guys aren't on base. In 3 of his last 4 starts he's given up a 3 run HR within the first 2 innings of the game. Don't rack up too many quality starts that way. So tho his other peripherals don't seem to have slipped much, sequencing is hurting him. Instead of HR, BB, single he gives up BB, single, HR. (Last season he stranded ~60%, this season down to 50%). There isn't much to do but ride it out. Eventually his luck will change. Do keep an eye on the peripherals - sometimes as you climb leagues pitchers peripherals crumble. PS - if anyone has suggestions about my Booth I'm all ears. He failed as a starter. He's my worst reliever (ERA, FIP, BB/9, K/9, HR allowed, HB ...). Last year I thought I'd figured out LHB were his problem. This season he gets LHB but not RHB. Guy is USA National team and should be an asset.

#34484	05/25/2016 2:27:34 pm
Carcharoth Joined: 07/16/2015 Posts: 149 Inactive	100% agree with Brent and Seca, there's not too much that's really wrong with him, other than a streak of bad luck. His peripherals have mostly held together even moving up to LL IV. He's giving up a few more hits, which is to be expected. The unfortunate part is a lot of those appear to come in to score. That being said he looks like a phenomenal pitcher, so I'd just ride out the streak with him. I also wouldn't worry about his ERA too much, in a sample size this small it can move all over the place (especially if he keeps on getting pulled early in games, I noticed he's averaging a full inning less per start this season compared to last). @Seca I wish I had the same problems as Legends teams :P. He's probably not as lights-out as you'd like (and I don't know much about the quality of batter at the Legends level) but I think with relievers it's even harder to evaluate performance even across a full season. They pitch many fewer innings, have to deal with pinch hitters, and could just be unfortunate enough to face above average hitters (since they only see 3+ per appearance). All of his peripherals are moving in the right directions and look pretty good. Given his SI I'd expect more K's and fewer BB's, but it looks okay with his GB/FB. Who knows, maybe his SI is just grossly overreported? Also I'd say it's not quite like real life with regards to the bullpen transition. In BB it's not as if pitchers suddenly start throwing harder etc. when they move to the bullpen just because they throw less with each appearance. Any variation there would be due more to the type of batter he faces (which again you would know more about, I saw a couple of your posts about one absurdly strong offensive team).

#34488	05/25/2016 3:18:20 pm
AD24 Joined: 09/04/2015 Posts: 112 Inactive	@Wizkid Cantu IMO looks to be suffering from bad RNG. Hopefully in the 2nd half he can pick it up and even out to his career averages. @Seca Blame the Bison The only thing I can think of for Booth is bad hiddens? Maybe he just doesn't have "it"? I'm stumped.

#34489	05/25/2016 3:45:13 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9597 Haverhill Halflings III.1	His FIP isn't much different than most years. He has always given up a lot of home runs. ERA isn't really the best measure of performance (although his WHIP isn't too good either). I'd agree its mostly bad breaks with a little underperformance thrown in. But not a by a lot. He actually looks like a decent pitcher to me. He'll probably turn it around a bit in the second half of the year.

#34538	05/26/2016 4:28:25 pm
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	LOL AD24. Generic Seca 2027 post: "grumble grumble grumble Bisons. grumble grumble Buffalo grumble grumble" @ Carcth - I get the "1st world problems" gist. But I have precious few big bar players. Booth was supposed to be a pillar for my team. I never really bought the "he's over-scouted", but at this point it's either that, chronic bad luck, or the worst clutch stat in BB. He's in his 4th year, plays for a team that emphasizes defence over offense, has 17-19-17-17 get him out skills, and still has over 5 career ERA.

#34539	05/26/2016 4:34:41 pm
WizKid Joined: 06/30/2015 Posts: 33 Inactive	thanks for the help I guess hes just been a little bit unlucky and maybe will have a better 2nd half of the year. part of what I was getting at is what accounts for a big difference between FIP and ERA besides luck? if his peripherals are normal and FIP ok how do I understand the ERA-FIP gap and whether it should continue?

#34540	05/26/2016 4:38:20 pm
Carcharoth Joined: 07/16/2015 Posts: 149 Inactive	Realized I didn't know exactly what FIP measures so I looked it up. Turns out it accounts for every AB in which defense does not play a role: HR, K, and BB. HR and BB increase FIP, K's decrease it. So if a pitcher is particularly good or bad at any particular part of that, he could skew his FIP. For example, a pitcher who can't strike anyone out but is relatively average for walks and home runs would have a higher FIP than average.

#34543	05/26/2016 7:00:39 pm
garfscores Joined: 10/13/2014 Posts: 488 Battle Creek Sting IV.7	I was in both V.12 and IV.6 and my pitching was much worse when I moved up. I went from 4.2 RA to 5.0 in one season. I'm sure that part of it is that it is an offensive league and part of it is just random and the guy will ultimately be better.