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Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 5194

Waterloo Dinosaurs
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
I don't trust the rankings as a value measurement at all. My highest guy is at 71.3. With more than four minor league seasons under his belt, his WHIP is a ridiculous 1.763 and the opposition has hit .313 against him.

For sure. The rankings are just for fun. Provides a narrative. Guys with the high ratings are supposed to be stars, guys with low ratings the long shots due to age, low ceiling, missing tool, etc..

That said, I've come to view rate of progression through the minors as a very strong indicator. Prospect rating actually does a decent job of flagging guys that are advancing slowly.

I wouldn't put any faith in minor league stats tho. Especially for pitchers. That 1.7 WHIP is being influenced by the horrible, horrible defenses behind minor league hurlers.
Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 5194

Waterloo Dinosaurs
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
Yeah, my current philosophy is that I don't really need young guys. I'm constantly picking up promising AA guys who are in their early 20s. If its a promising player, I will pick him up, but young guys (specifically those in rookie) take more resources to develop than older guys. The pipeline can be managed sufficiently through just AAA and AA players really. Just saves space because players are ready in 3-4 years instead of 6-8.

EDIT: It works hand in hand with the resurrection experiments. If I only invest 3 years in developing a guy, then its ok if I only get 4 good years out of him.

I don't recommend this philosophy in general. Its just the one I'm playing around with right now. It will be a few seasons before I can see how well it works.


I see where you are coming from. Probably a very clever approach given how fickle your draft has been the past few seasons.

"Project" players a big part of the influence I imagine. If a player doesn't hit the majors until 26-27, and doesn't fill out till 29, he's only got around a 4 year playing career. If his replacement is 17 in rookie ball, succession isn't going to work very well.

I would be really concerned about pitching. In my experience the arms available in that niche are mostly waving red flags, and even then can be contested.

Will be interesting to see how it works out. Very different from the Dino supply line, which is stretched out about as long as it can be.
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
I'm splitting the difference, with several pitching resurrections being attempted, and also developing guys from 17 and 18 up. I honestly am curious if I can turn these 24-26 year olds around what with having possibly the best development manager in the game, as Niwa did in fact hit 20.
amalric7
Joined: 01/20/2016
Posts: 2235

New York Lancers
IV.2

Broken Bat Baseball
I have a guy similar to Murillo that newtman just picked up in Montes, who was on six teams before I claimed him. Unlike Murillo, he has no scouting report at all beyond "very good potential", which should make him a high Cos/Mov/Con guy - IF I can get him enough innings. We've all seen pitchers that age make huge SI gains with extended innings, but who knows if Montes is one of them.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9569

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
Unfortunately for me I don't really have any SP resurrection projects. I have Jim Lang who as a normal prospect that just hasn't been able to progress fast enough. So he will look like one. I had my eye on a couple projects that slipped through waivers, but they got picked off FA while I was waffling. SP is a serious weakness for me right now.
Dcmrulz
Joined: 02/14/2013
Posts: 588

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
I was able to build a solid crop from castoffs from other teams. A good strategy was exploiting a perceived weakness, like below average control.
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
To be fair, I drafted Rosa, he just started at 20 with his SI at 22. He is making outstanding progress though, and I believe I can turn around most guys within reason with my current manager.
Dan6176
Joined: 04/30/2016
Posts: 254

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
I've noticed that my prospects that have an ETA to the majors when they are younger tend to be at the top of the list, so I don't put much stock into it anymore. Peter Buchanan is my true top prospect. I expect big things from him. He hit a HR in his first major league AB last September and has hit safely in 16 of 18 spring training games.
mikkoredsox
Joined: 03/29/2015
Posts: 116

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
I would be cautious about giving that guy ABs in the majors Dan. He's still in AA and calling him up could stunt his growth or max SI. not really worth it.
Dan6176
Joined: 04/30/2016
Posts: 254

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
I called him up after the minor league season had ended and put him back before the playoffs. He only had ten AB. The only reason is his ETA is this season. I plan on only calling him up this season if he gets recommended or in September.

The manual says older players come with more training and experience. I drafted him in 2028, and because his ETA is this season,I figured he is already well trained and could use some experience.

Updated Thursday, September 29 2016 @ 10:22:47 am PDT


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