Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Help me deconstruct the success of this starting pitcher

Forum >> Discussions >> Help me deconstruct the success of this starting pitcher

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#45196	02/14/2017 7:10:33 am
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	Player: Dong Young Cha With a cursory glance at Cha's player card, it's relatively easy to dismiss him. 1. He has no remarks. 2. He has a whopping 45 points in defense. 3. Control is really his only plus skill, though it's plus plus. 4. Topped out at 98 SI in 2026. Going off of my experience with this game since starting last August 2016, plus control aside, the free agent wire has been littered with this mediocrity for many seasons. So, when excluding 2024 and 2025, and noting that its only in LL6 and LL5, how can that scruffy looking nerf herder have a 3.35 ERA and 3.68 FIP with a moderate level of success? I've seen players with far better player cards fair so much worse. Looking deeper: * He doesn't do so well vs. lefties but manages righties OK. * He has a 64.6 percent career strike percentage, which judging from my experience is above average. * He tends to keep the ball on the ground more than your average pitcher, keeping the HR ball in check. So from a prospecting perspective, how do we go about finding little diamonds in the rough like Cha? Is it simply luck of the draw? (I know I had a system devoid of talent when I took the team, so I was gobbling up any prospect that showed any promise.) Or is there a way for us to pick out someone like Cha in the future? Making a broad profile statement of Cha, I can say he's a tall lefty control artist who keeps the ball down and has an above-average propensity for throwing strikes. If I'm looking in the free agent pool, it's tough to pick out a youngster such as this. We're used to looking at comments for guidance, but we currently don't have special comments for Control of 10 or greater. (Why?) So searching for a control artist is totally a crap shoot! Right? If today I do a FA + Waiver search for P, 16 to 25, minimum control of 7, sort results by control and then look for the age outliers, what do I see? Not a lot. First, no one under the age of 20 shows up, and there's only one 20-year-old at that. There's a 21-year-old Daniel Lucas with a 9 control, but we still don't know if that number will grow in the coming years or he just quickly reached average in that stat. There's a 24- and 25-year-old with a 15 and 14 control respectively, but their ST% and GB/FB aren't as intriguing. Edit: When I look at the development graph of Cha, at the age of 23.5 he had a control of 9. That number skyrocketed to 19 by age 25. I assume this is the age range we need to be looking at for a potential increase? So is there any way to put our prospecting skills to work and fish out another Cha? Or is it luck? Thoughts? Updated Tuesday, February 14 2017 @ 7:17:32 am PST

#45201	02/14/2017 7:33:10 am
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2237 New York Lancers V.4	I have no idea. But he looks like one of those guys my lineup usually spends all day whiffing at, with little success (seen too many of those). Maybe he's BB's Korean version of Jamie Moyer?

#45205	02/14/2017 8:26:20 am
jdar25 Joined: 11/14/2016 Posts: 52 Inactive	http://brokenbat.org/player/89333 I have a similar pitcher I think keeping the ball on the ground might have something to do with it.

#45207	02/14/2017 9:23:04 am
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Both your 2B and SS turned over 80 DPs this season. Those are big numbers (imo). I'm guessing a big part of your pitcher's success is his 1.34 ground ball rate. Ironically, having a better fastball might hurt him as it would mean more flyball outs and less chances to turn 2. Edit: Sorry jdar. I didn't read your post carefully. I repeated your point. Updated Tuesday, February 14 2017 @ 9:35:02 am PST

#45213	02/14/2017 11:18:49 am
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	Yeah, I have another plus-control, GB machine in Andy Muir. I hadn't looked at the DP numbers of my MI, but yes, I assume Cha and Muir are both feeding balls to them. At this point I'm trying to figure out how to scout out this type of profile. In particular, why no player card comments on plus control pitchers, e.g., "He will show excellent control"? (Not that I believe control pitchers are the end-all, be-all. More of a curiosity than anything.) Updated Tuesday, February 14 2017 @ 11:19:26 am PST Updated Tuesday, February 14 2017 @ 11:20:26 am PST