Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: MythBusters--Race To Draft

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Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#46160	02/28/2017 6:49:22 am
Deuce Joined: 06/07/2016 Posts: 279 New London Rippers V.3	Rock asks a great question. I see no way to tell who was picked at what time...only the round. I would love to know how to figure this out.

#46161	02/28/2017 6:54:54 am
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	I did it by player ID number. It obviously won't be exact, but it will be close. I'm sure a few people let their choices sit there for an extended period. The risk of losing those options/players is too great, though, so I doubt there are very many. The fact that it went down throughout the entire round shows it's pretty accurate. While I say it went down throughout the entire round, there were obviously hills as well as valleys. Players 475-484 were fantastic, one of the best stretches of the round. They went 14, 15, 14, 15, 13, 12, 12, 13, 14, 15.

#46162	02/28/2017 7:04:48 am
Deuce Joined: 06/07/2016 Posts: 279 New London Rippers V.3	Ahhh..where there's a will there's a way..lol Great work Mike!!

#46164	02/28/2017 7:54:42 am
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9592 Haverhill Halflings III.1	That is smart. I hadn't even considered that IDs aren't created until after players are drafted. I had assumed they already existed, but now I seem to remember Steve saying something about them having a different set of IDs because they aren't fully created until they are drafted. SI and POT don't actually exist until the player is drafted.

#46183	02/28/2017 8:22:38 pm
Jason2327 Joined: 09/02/2014 Posts: 718 Abilene Patriots III.2	Excellent work mike!!

#46200	03/01/2017 10:42:52 am
Crazy Li Joined: 01/25/2015 Posts: 879 Inactive	Ah, that's right... they don't generate properly until drafted, do they? This is why all undrafted players simply get deleted at the end instead of going to free agency (that and there would be mostly crap left most years)

#46203	03/01/2017 2:31:34 pm
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2236 New York Lancers V.4	Yeah, I knew where Mike was coming from. If you really want to torture yourself, go back over your previous draft picks and search the following prospects sequentially to see what came immediately after. "Let's see what you could have won..."

#46751	03/14/2017 11:51:59 pm
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	ROUND 2 I expected the drop-off to decelerate, so I was somewhat shocked by the results. I'll list them by quartile (125 picks) again. Average overall potential: 12.7, 12.5, 12.5, 12.4. Percentage VG overall potential: 43, 39, 34, 33. Percentage Good overall potential: 50, 58, 58, 50. At first glance, it appears as if it has steadily digressed throughout the draft so far. However, looking back at the end of the first round, the last quartile went 12.5, 42, 44. The entire second round went 12.5, 37, 54. Summarizing, round two had a small decline from early to late. The surprise, though, is that the entirety of round two did as well as the last fourth of round one.

#46778	03/15/2017 10:01:14 am
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5198 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Very interesting. I appreciate your effort. I'm not that surprised a drop hasn't been seen yet. Think this is a reflection of pool strategy and size. My guess is there will be a clunk somewhere towards the end of round 3 - start of round 4. Breaking each round into quarters may provide a second insight. If we assume: - managers draft around the same time each week. - those who draft earlier are the keeners / try hards and have more "skill" then a season length view of the quarters may give an idea of the effect of skill on the draft. (I think the first assumption is pretty solid, but the second is sketchy).

#46865	03/16/2017 2:56:47 pm
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2236 New York Lancers V.4	We've drafted two 12s and an 11 POT, all have been C&R'd. We're in full 'clunk' mode this draft season, but we were overdue.