Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: What are your experiences in the first two rounds of the draft?

Forum >> Discussions >> What are your experiences in the first two rounds of the draft?

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#53242	09/16/2017 8:55:50 am
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	I just keep learning new things about this game nearly every day. I've never seen that link before. Huh!

#53243	09/16/2017 8:56:51 am
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	That said, if that functions like the top prospect list for your own minors, I'd take it with a slight grain of salt.

#53244	09/16/2017 9:04:30 am
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Until this season I always picked from the "All Pools" option which is what accounts for my varied draft history, which includes Schubert (International), Rosa (Latin), Di Carlo (College), and Thomason (High School) all as first round picks. This season I have purposefully picked high school each week, and while I am happy with Canada, I would have much rather pulled several of the other guys listed in the 2033 round #1 forum thread. Edit: Forgot Thomason was actually a second round pick. Updated Saturday, September 16 2017 @ 9:09:08 am PDT

#53245	09/16/2017 9:07:25 am
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	@lostraven, it uses the same system and was implemented at the same time as the official prospects rating system was put into the game. Since the rating system is horribly flawed (in my opinion) I haven't bothered paying attention to it since it was put in about 7-10 seasons ago.

#53246	09/16/2017 9:15:37 am
wickersty Joined: 05/11/2017 Posts: 1002 Deadwood Perambulators II.1	@lostraven yeah no doubt, huge grain of salt. I don't take my rankings list as informative, but what I HAVE been doing is forcing myself to take very close looks at re players at the bottom of my list, comparing them to similarly aged prospects on my team, trying to understand WHY they were ranked so low, trying to see an aspect of their profile that I haven't previously seen, to try and help decide if I should keep them. I wonder if anyone else does something similar...

#53248	09/16/2017 10:04:44 am
Cactusguy21 Joined: 07/25/2017 Posts: 815 Presque Isle Vikings III.4	In my first ever draft I got Kang Dae On in round 1 from the Asian pool. He has brought a lot of stability to the bullpen, despite my having been distraught once I found out a couple days later that good potential is better than above average. Nicolas Zelaya was my second pick, from High School. He will be a nice CF if he actually starts developing (only 2 SI this year what the heck). Updated Saturday, September 16 2017 @ 10:05:21 am PDT

#53249	09/16/2017 10:06:39 am
occham Joined: 11/07/2011 Posts: 258 Inactive	I've posted this elsewhere but my interpretation of the prospect list really boils down to 'likely to be major league ready by age 25' and is only collaterally related to pot. SI plays a big role but it's a bit more sophisticated than that from what I can tell. Say for example that an average 25 year old pitcher is somewhere around 10/10/10/10/10 and a total SI around 85 when they get recommended for promotion. The 'prospect raking' is then a comparison to that baseline with somewhere around '45' being average. If you had a 18 year old pitcher with current stats of 9/9/9/9/9 but a POT of 10, he'd still be an INCREDIBLE prospect since his chance of being ready to play by 25 is all but assured. A 23 year old pitcher with 5/5/5/5/5 and 16 POT is a TERRIBLE prospect because in the next two years, he's not likely to pick up 30+ SI, no matter his potential, even though by age 28, he may in fact be a better pitcher than the other guy. I think that's part of why so many younger players have such high prospect rankings. The 24 year olds who are ready to play get promoted and self sort out of the rankings. I have no proof of any of this Just my observations.

#53250	09/16/2017 10:48:50 am
wickersty Joined: 05/11/2017 Posts: 1002 Deadwood Perambulators II.1	@occ I buy that. I have noticed that my highest ranked prospects have a high SI for their age compared to my lower ranked prospects who, on paper, have great scouting reports, but have comparatively low SI for their age. I think your description is exactly what's happening in the prospect ranking calculations. But if I use it as a "how good will he be at 25y/promotion stage", that's still somewhat helpful info to have, I think.

#53251	09/16/2017 11:14:37 am
occham Joined: 11/07/2011 Posts: 258 Inactive	I think there's also a little bit to be gleaned from the 'change in ranking' over time relative to training. If you're 20 year old prospect starts out at 55 or something and actually drops in prospect ranking then you know he's probably a 'slow learner' and that wonderful potential may not actually be realized until later in his career if ever. Likewise, if you have someone who starts out at 29 rating but increases to 39 over a couple of seasons, then he's learning fast and making up ground relative to average.

#53269	09/17/2017 6:21:40 am
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	Thanks for the replies, everyone! Looks like there are a few nice-looking International prospects from what you all have shown, though pulling from International early seems like a good call. Also some good Asian examples. I'll have to mull it over in my head, but I think I have a slightly clearer picture for my draft next season. Good fortunes the rest of the way, all!