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Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 3362

Waterloo Dinosaurs
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and Seca are saying

Hehe. I was being a little facetious with my post. :) Obviously on the macro scale drafting in the 1st round will (usually) yield a better player than the 8th round.

What's more contentious is the smaller scale. Is it a tangible effect in a given round? I personally feel it's not a big deal (tho I wouldn't recommend the Asian pool if you arrive 3 hours late for round 1).

I posted this in another thread. This was the average potential for the first 90 players chosen in 2040 broken into 10 player buckets.

1-10: 13.3
11-20: 13.4
21-30: 12.4
31-40: 13.1
41-50: 13.1
51-60: 12.7
61-70: 13.0
71-80: 13.4
81-90: 12.3

Just one season, but this year anyway the person who drafted 1st and the person that drafted 80th both came away with the same average potential.

As for static, the main problem is the scope. There are 1000s of players in the draft pool that you would need to scout and form into a list. Your list would need to be massive to have enough redundancy to actually pick a player you want. (Secondary concern is determining the draft order). And yes, league or individual pools gets around this problem, but this also has issues both technical and philosophical.
jpnwrt
Joined: 06/29/2018
Posts: 20

Logan Pioneers
V.6

Broken Bat Baseball
Thanks, Seca. After the post above yours, I was afraid my hair will need serious makeover once I get the replies from the big guns, but you at least were kind ;-)

Yes, I was obviously thinking of smaller pools, for the static model. And I also think determining the order would be a minor problem in that case. Number one remains extra programming work (and realistically there would be no chance for that before next season begins).
So I will not even touch the philosophy, in order not to distract you guys from the issues still realistically possible. At least until we'll have the chance to see the new system at work. Thanks again for the reply.

Updated Friday, May 10 2019 @ 9:56:25 am PDT
peacockpenguin
Joined: 11/18/2014
Posts: 39

Bremerton Yellow Jackets
V.5

Broken Bat Baseball
I believe my point was completely missed. Obviously there's going to be a drop-off in talent between round 1 and round 8. I don't see much evidence for a similar drop-off between round 1 pick 100 vs round 1 pick 300.


What's more contentious is the smaller scale. Is it a tangible effect in a given round? I personally feel it's not a big deal (tho I wouldn't recommend the Asian pool if you arrive 3 hours late for round 1)



That's the point I was trying to make

Updated Friday, May 10 2019 @ 11:10:35 am PDT
Brewnoe
Joined: 03/25/2014
Posts: 424

Fall River Naughty Dawgs
IV.3

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I want chicken and orange juice, that's what's on my rider
And my occasional potato by Ore-Ida
Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 3362

Waterloo Dinosaurs
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Broken Bat Baseball
@ jpnwrt
Number one remains extra programming work (and realistically there would be no chance for that before next season begins).

Ya. AFAIK Admin has said smaller pools aren't going to happen. So we could debate the merits all we want, but its not going to get us anywhere.

@ peacockpenguin
I believe my point was completely missed. Obviously there's going to be a drop-off in talent between round 1 and round 8. I don't see much evidence for a similar drop-off between round 1 pick 100 vs round 1 pick 300.

Certainly didn't overlook your post, and I agree with your point of view. From what I've seen, player quality isn't granular enough to vanish mid round.

I do think the smaller pools are more sensitive to the effect. If you are not early it is prudent to stay away from them.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 5563

Haverhill Halflings
III.2

Broken Bat Baseball
There is going to be a larger drop off from 100 to 300 than from 0 to 100. Its just the way math works.
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 2848

Margate Magicians
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No, that's not true. Actual data and values would be needed to claim that. Even then you could only declare that if a computer performed the entire draft. With people, who make choices, being involved you have no idea where the biggest drop-offs will be. People "mess up" randomness. To a certain degree there's the matter of skill involved in drafting. I'd rather have 100 monkeys draft before me than 25 owners.
Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 3362

Waterloo Dinosaurs
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
It will be interesting to see what the draft change does.

With the "fog of war" being removed from the draft list and added to player potential, I suspect we will see a more rapid decline in potential. (I'm not likely to chose a 9 pot in the first round).

This suggests that early bird might be a thing. It will be easier to nab that 15 pot at pick #22. But is he really a 15 pot? May also mean bad good players go earlier. Under the old system many experienced managers would choose "great hitting good potential" (and cross their fingers) over "no hitting very good potential". Those high potential "trap" players are more likely to go in the early rounds now, instead of showing up at the end of the draft when all the players with good scouting are gone.

The complaints about early bird aren't going to go away. If anything the new system may make it look worse. Kicker is it will be much more opaque, and we won't know for seasons what the outcome is.

(PS - I will admit some concern over the small pools going forward. The big pools provide much better random sampling which is why they are more resistant to the EBB. Smaller pools less so. I feel some of the misses in these pools are due to having 2 "great hit very good potential" guys on your list, but choosing the 12 pot over the 14 pot due to imperfect knowledge. That won't happen anymore. Will take a while to see if uncertain potential bars are enough to mitigate this).
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 5563

Haverhill Halflings
III.2

Broken Bat Baseball
Yep. I don't think the new draft is going to fix any of the old problems. Just going to create a few new ones. But we'll see.

With people, who make choices, being involved you have no idea where the biggest drop-offs will be.

That's a BS argument. You are assuming the first 100 drafters are dumber than the next 200? I would say that's a pretty poor assumption. You might have things work out different in one specific year, but on average there is going to be a bigger drop off after 300 picks then after the first 100.
Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 3362

Waterloo Dinosaurs
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
Another new factor is pooling by position. These pools are big, so they should sample well. But ...

Pitchers. They were able to "hide" their potential better in the old draft. A +vel +mov +stam VG potential could easily be 12 pot or 14 pot. With the old draft you could have 2 of these guys on your board and could make the wrong choice. Won't happen anymore.

Anytime I have modelled EBB I've assumed a 100% hit rate (if a good player is on the board that player gets picked). In practice the old system hit rate was lower, especially for pitchers. With the new system hit rate is going to seem higher. Whether it actually is higher (uncertain potential bars) may be difficult to discern.


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