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MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 2709

Margate Magicians
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There was a post a little higher in the thread by a team that's suffered long term damage from the first two rounds of this year's draft. 1st round pick was a great / decent 17 yr 13 pot with 17 speed + SB gene and 2 clear defensive positions.



My bet is that was aimed at me. In my opinion, your assessment of that player is far better than he will ever be. He'll likely be something like 17-9-8-15-17-10-12-16. Yes, he appears to be a good base stealer, but, as they say, you can't steal first and he won't be on base enough to have much value there. He also appears to be a big time groundball hitter, which makes his "decent slugging" a waste. In his (few) 46 minor league at bats, he has exactly one extra base hit, a double. While he can't possibly be that bad, I'd be shocked if his OPS ever exceeds the 600s. His implied good positions could only be RF or catcher, neither of which are good at all. You need lefty hitters in the outfield and a 16 arm catcher is not good. I can't imagine him being on my roster for more than a season or two and he'll only make it that long because I have unusually good roster space at the moment, largely due to horrible waiver luck this off-season/spring.


Updated Friday, March 29 2019 @ 2:11:06 pm PDT
Dan6176
Joined: 04/30/2016
Posts: 254

Oshkosh Red Devils
V.8

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Drafted my first POT 15 today with 17 year old Jayden Gunter. It is bittersweet because he has a lot of growing to do. Hoping he can grow and show that he's worth 15 POT.
Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 3123

Waterloo Dinosaurs
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Grats Dan6176. Think there is a good chance he fills out. :)

@ MukilteoMike
Not suggesting Quintana will be a star, but he’s far from a franchise rendering disaster. Would personally consider him above average for the round. Your projection may well be accurate. Then again, maybe his BC stalls at 7 and he pushes to 109 instead of 104. Now you have 15 PD, an OBP closer to .340-.350, and maybe 50-60 SBs. (I saw him as a 3B fwiw).

Maybe that’s rose colored glasses, but that’s the potential upside. That you don’t think you’ll have a roster spot to gamble on a great hitting 13 pot base stealer suggests pretty strong system.
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 2709

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Well, yeah, if he reaches the most unlikely but possible OBP he would be worth keeping. The problem is he's probably something like 70% likely to be under 330 OBP with similar slugging. That's no good.

Third base with no positive fielding comment? You've been watching my defense too closely. No one should plan on doing such a thing.

I also don't think there's any way he's above average for round one. You're comparing him to your lame pick, I'm afraid. A first round pick should be an obvious keeper. That doesn't mean a star in the making, but merely someone that should make the majors if he develops as touted. I think my guy has about a 15% chance of being a starter any where. Granted, that's 15% higher than yours.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 5416

Haverhill Halflings
III.2

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Would have been thrilled to get Quintana as a first round pick. He is way better than 90% of my first round picks. Well above average. You have just been spoiled with REALLY good draft luck.
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 2709

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I'll make a gentlemen's bet of a million plus with anyone that he doesn't have a career OPS of 700 or better at the end of 2055. If he has more than 1000 at bats and a career 700+ OPS, I owe you a million pretend dollars and will forfeit my third round draft pick in 2056. If that isn't the case, you owe me the same thing. To make it more painful, we must select draft, see the draftees available, screenprint it to be shown to all, and then NOT select a player.
TPS
Joined: 10/19/2016
Posts: 85

Dallas Dragons
V.15

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Decent first baseman prospect
RDailey1948
Joined: 12/29/2016
Posts: 125

Terre Haute Hawks
VI.29

Broken Bat Baseball
Scouting Report: He can have a major league fastball. His control will always be below average. He will be able to throw all day. He has good overall potential.
Was the most promising in my college pick but
http://brokenbat.org/player/197641
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 2709

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Strange that no one picked up my round 2 draft pick. I just released my #1 that many were saying is good even though no one would make a wager backing it up. Claim away! I bet someone will take him, but I still say he'll never be good enough to be an every day player. Good luck!
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 2709

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Keeping an eye on Quintana. He has exploded in a good direction this week. He hit his first two homers and raised his average 30 or 40 points I think. It has been a good enough week that I actually got a little nervous about my decision to release him. We'll see if can continue the trend as a Halfling.


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