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Yuri84
Joined: 10/14/2014
Posts: 639

Apple Valley Raccoons
III.2

Broken Bat Baseball
Thanks, it kind of makes sense now. I only have one question... will I be able to buy Alaska back? I'm willing to pay in... apples? :)

Updated Friday, May 17 2019 @ 5:17:55 am PDT
Frankebasta
Joined: 09/15/2013
Posts: 881

Kodiak Mules
III.3

Broken Bat Baseball
hahahaha

well, I think Alaska here would be.... that pot16, who was scouted as Good a fell thru the cracks till the 8th round :)

as for the site's currency, yes I think Apples are the standard ;)
Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 5193

Waterloo Dinosaurs
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
Still always going to have a big advantage the earlier you draft regardless of the pool size

Hehe. Thought you implied you understood the numbers? :) The emphasis is mine, but this is the type of rhetoric I was hoping to curb.

Do you think early bird effect will matter if you are drafting for a specific position, as teased by Steve?

The concern with pitchers is:

All of the "good player" references in the original post change to "good pitcher". May be very significant. Ie., being able to view amateur stats is huge for pitchers.

The pool size is unknown. Probably bigger than the big pools? Or about the same? 70:30 position players to pitchers? Is it going to see Asian-style depletion if 70 of the first 100 go for a hurler?

The "advantage" of drafting early in the first round is that your choice of pool is not constrained. You can get a good percentage from every pool, so you choose the pool that best suits your needs. If you draft later in the first round, your choice is guided more by strategy. You might like an Asian player that would be ready a season or so sooner, but you are compelled to go elsewhere to max out your %.

That isn't really a big deal currently. Need a pitcher? Pick a pool and cross your fingers. The small pools being depleted doesn't matter. There are lots of good pitchers to be found in the second round.

With draft by position? Remains to be seen. That pool may show the effects of depletion in the first round. If you draft in the 400-500s you are likely compelled to avoid the pitcher pool to keep your % up, and by the end of the 2nd round the chances of finding a star may be minimal.

I argued against draft by position, and still think its a bad idea. The current structure is so elegant. Each of the pools has clear advantages and disadvantages. There is some definite strategy involved in your decision.

With draft by position, the groups lack advantages and disadvantages. The cream (pitchers) may be skimmed off the top. The rest of the groups are incoherent randomness. Deciding between the 1B pool and OF pool seems more like throwing darts than strategy.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9568

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
Yes. I do understand the numbers. It is a big advantage. I suspect you aren't appreciating the magnitude of a .1 delta in SI.
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
I also dislike draft by position for precisely the same reasons you do, Seca. I dislike the current pools as well because, as you know, you're screwed if you pick a small pool that has been drafted from a lot. Hmmm. An idea for a suggestion just came to me--each pool should show how many are left along with the initial number available. For example, Asian Pool 124 left of 136.
buffmckagan
Joined: 12/22/2013
Posts: 650

Scranton Bears
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball

...each pool should show how many are left along with the initial number available. For example, Asian Pool 124 left of 136.



Love this idea. Could save a lot of potential heartache for people who think they're early but aren't
admin
Joined: 01/27/2010
Posts: 4980

Administrator
Broken Bat Baseball
Interesting...right now I think we only show the current pool size. I guess I could record the pool size at the beginning of the season -- but what would we do for the cases where people select a position?

Also, players might be in the pool for more seasons...so things are getting a little more complicated.


Steve
Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 5193

Waterloo Dinosaurs
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
Seeing the original pool size would be nice information for everyone, but does that help those drafting later? Part of the protection for those drafting later is having some that draft early not realize a pool has been hit.

Its a big advantage. I suspect you aren't appreciating the magnitude of a 0.1 delta in SI.

At least you left the "always" out this time. Progress! :)

"Big" is subjective. We are now firmly in the realm of opinion. I do not consider 0.1 SI delta "big". In my view:
- a manager has had the ability to draft above the curve through pool choice and good player selection
- the draft order is not fixed, the 0.1 is not perpetuated round to round or draft season to draft season
- SI has a strong correlation with player quality, but it's not perfect. A great hitting 12 pot may be a better player than a good hitting 14 pot.

To the last point, 2 of your 26 ML players are 12 pot. Amoung my 29 ML players I have 2 11 pots and a dozen 12 pots. I've cut 13 pot pitching and position prospects this season so I could keep 12s. Seems clear we have different takes on the importance of SI.
amalric7
Joined: 01/20/2016
Posts: 2235

New York Lancers
IV.2

Broken Bat Baseball
I guess I could record the pool size at the beginning of the season

Well technically anyone can, albeit you record numbers in each pool (right now) when you come in to draft as opposed to when each round opens. At least it gives you some idea how many have been taken from each pool from round to round. I do it on a spreadsheet, but hey pen and paper still works (last I checked).
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9568

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
A great hitting 12 pot may be a better player than a good hitting 14 pot.

True, but on average a Great Hitting POT 13 will be better than a Great Hitting POT 12. On average, getting that higher POT player is going to net you a better player, which is why there is a big difference between drafting 12.5 POT on average and 12.2 POT on average. The 12.5 POT group will always end up with more quality stars than the 12.2 POT group over the long haul. 0.1 on average POT makes a big difference.

You are also glossing over # of choices here. That guy who drafted in the first group may have only gotten a POT 13, but he also could have had 4 Very Good options to choose from. While the guy in the last group was probably stuck with one Very Good. So sure he got a POT 13, but not necessarily one with an optimal build.

The best built players go fast, just like the best build managers. No one is going to pass up that Very Good, Great Hitting, Power Slugger. But plenty of Very Good, No hitting comment guys will slide through to the later picks.


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