Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Whats Wrong With My Team?

Forum >> Discussions >> What's Wrong With My Team?

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#41124	10/23/2016 6:14:21 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	So it's quite possible that the worst of the worst just go negative on both sides of the plate, whereas the best might go and do great against both. That would make a bit more sense and probably be closer to real. I'm not sure if I agree to the scouting becoming more accurate over time though. I think you can discern whether or not a player is an overachiever or underachiever, but i've only seen the drops in arm/range (or improvements), and i rarely see super early drops on hitters and pitchers in core skills until 29 or 30 by 1. If it's 20%, then it's even more favorable to a 19 or 20 hitter than my beliefs/views.

#41129	10/23/2016 7:33:36 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9604 Haverhill Halflings III.1	From the manual: So are there skill values displayed for each player accurate? Just as in real baseball, where there is some uncertainty about a player's talent level, in Broken Bat there is also built-in uncertainty in displayed skill levels. The visible skill values for each player are an approximation of his current actual skill level and may deviate by up to 20% from it true value for some skills. Additionally, just like in real baseball, as a player plays more games, his displayed skill value will approach his true current skill level. Note, this may result in a player's displayed skill level actually dropping, even though he is receiving regular training and playing time. His skill value is not actually dropping, but because his actual skill level is better known now, a more accurate and lower value is now displayed.

#41130	10/23/2016 7:35:13 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9604 Haverhill Halflings III.1	You don't see drops in most of the other ratings because they are improving at the same time as they are sharpening. A newly drafted player with 20 hitting (Asian Posting System?) could be as low as 16. But after he has been on your team for 7-8 years I doubt he could be any lower than 18. For players with less skill, the delta is even smaller. A newly drafted player with 10 hitting could be no worse than 8 (or more precisely 7.6) in reality. Updated Sunday, October 23 2016 @ 7:53:57 pm PDT

#41131	10/23/2016 7:51:51 pm
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	While the manual claims the reported values become more accurate over time, I think that's pure bunk. Guys who suck would lose SI like crazy, but they don't, and guys who are awesome should gain SI. While it doesn't say it, I think it's actually only referring to speed, range and arm. At times those move in the correct direction to their true skill.

#41132	10/23/2016 7:56:28 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9604 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I just had a guy lose a point in range. It took 8 seasons to show up. You are suggesting that you have players that are so bad, they would take longer than 8 seasons to "pop" in a skill. Both of these are happening at a very slow rate of progression. I think the misnomer "pop" confuses a lot of people. Training happens at a faster rate then scout sharpening, so we never see loses in skills that are trainable. Updated Sunday, October 23 2016 @ 7:58:45 pm PDT

#41133	10/23/2016 8:00:38 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	If it's a 6-8 season progression to accuracy, then the accuracy bit is pretty much moot. I tend to agree with mike that it appears defense is the most likely area to change over time towards a correct value, and that it's too hit or miss for players in terms of performance to be observable if they do improve over that course of time (or regress). This is a good discussion though, i am starting to revisit a few areas as far as what i believe.

#41134	10/23/2016 8:06:46 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9604 Haverhill Halflings III.1	It can be up to 8 depending on how far away from .5 they are. If you require proof, here it is. I assume all skills sharpen, but if you are training up 1 point or more over an 8 season period, it is going to be masked by the training. Most skills are only going to be off by a point or two (how often have you seen range or arm drop 2 points).

#41135	10/23/2016 8:44:37 pm
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	We tend to think of the negative. As Rock said, training and experience should be greater than scouting clarifications that would move down. So think about it the other direction--skills that are under scouted and should accordingly go up. The manual says the skills could be off by 20%, which means as much as four. If the skills became quantified more accurately throughout time, we should see lots and lots of guys who end up with overall SI out of their projected potential. There are a few instances where this happens, but it's very rare and I've never seen it by more than a point or two. Maybe they do move towards their true value. If they do, it happens so slowly that it doesn't really help at all.

#41136	10/23/2016 8:55:02 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9604 Haverhill Halflings III.1	We do see some guys go over their max potential, but I'm not sure that is the same anyhow. There is nothing saying that a guys scouting report or max POT is "unsharp", just the current actual ratings. Let's take a guy with a "very good hitter" report. At 22 his ratings may say he currently has 10 hitting, while in reality he has 12. As he gradually gains 4 points through training/experience, his scouting also sharpens by one point. So by the time his is 25 he has 15 hitting. We think, "oh he trained well", but in reality he only trained 4 points, while sharpening +1 in hitting (initially off by 2). No one will see that guy gain that extra point because it happens gradually just like training. He just popped 5 times in the course of 3 season instead of 4. It helps create more variety and unpredictability in growth patterns. That guy everyone says is a "slow" developer might be developing fine, he is just sharping to his true skills at the same time. Plus, "doesn't help at all": so you would rather your ratings were off by 20% instead of 10% when your player is 27? Seems to me that increased accuracy is a lot of help. Updated Sunday, October 23 2016 @ 9:00:36 pm PDT

#41139	10/23/2016 11:28:54 pm
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	That's all well and good, but you made up the numbers. You have no idea how much the accuracy improves over time. Explain why some guys over-perform their skills by a wide margin and others stink up the joint. If skills are accurately depicted for veterans, that shouldn't happen. Seeing a players skills isn't enough, you have to consider their history/stats. Why? Probably because their skills don't necessarily match their quoted values.