Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: The Early Bird Bonus and you ... Now with math!

Forum >> Discussions >> The Early Bird Bonus and you ... Now with math!

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date

#65432	05/12/2019 2:15:16 pm	Sep 18th, 2040
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9602 Haverhill Halflings III.1	That is nice work. Although I think those of us who understand math didn't really need these calculation to understand what was happening, while those who don't understand math are likely still unconvinced... Updated Sunday, May 12 2019 @ 2:15:34 pm PDT

#65433	05/12/2019 2:16:55 pm	Sep 18th, 2040
Brewnoe Joined: 03/25/2014 Posts: 818 Fall River Naughty Dawgs IV.5	(&&^% the 8th round limit and twice for starting with the 3rd round

#65438	05/13/2019 7:14:14 am	Sep 22nd, 2040
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5201 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Appreciate the input. Please don't take any of this as criticism. I enjoy the discussion. I believe this in conjunction with seca's theoretical work above helps support that there is a difference in the potential based on how early a player was drafted. There isn't any question whether there is an effect (Round 1 > Round 8). It's all about the significance. In my view, the significance of the significance is more significant in the first 100. I wouldn't be surprised if the same 60 or so managers showed up in the first 100 season after season. Conversely, those in the 600s probably have more season to season variation in draft position. If there is an advantage, its only a problem if its systemic. That would happen early in the round (imo). My own conclusion is that the significance can be largely mitigated by pool strategy. When I look at the draft data from 2038, I picture decay curves for the different pools superimposed on each other, all with different rates and coefficients. A lower line at 300 is blending depleted small pools and those that aren't. With "skill" I can achieve an above average result. Skill is definitely a thing. My numbers assume that if there is a good player in the list, that player will be chosen. That's not always the case. The early birds are the keeners, and have more skill (generally speaking) than those who arrive late in the draft and a better chance of identifying good players. At the other end of the spectrum, bots (are they the dip 240-270?) have no skill at all. The concern in the new draft is that it will require less skill (potential visible). May turn out that way. Then again, looking at written scouting and amateur stats and crossing that against an uncertain potential may actually mean more skill is needed. The other little pitfall is associating potential with player quality. Its our best way to quantify it, and it probably has a chi squared under 5% , but it does introduce an error bar. I found my analysis comforting. I am less concerned about the small pools. My main worry moving into the new draft is the influence of being able to draft pitchers.

#65489	05/15/2019 5:36:46 pm	Oct 4th, 2040
buffmckagan Joined: 12/22/2013 Posts: 651 Scranton Bears Legends	I appreciate all the work put into this. Do you think early bird effect will matter if you are drafting for a specific position, as teased by Steve?

#65492	05/15/2019 9:56:14 pm	Oct 4th, 2040
BUDude Joined: 05/05/2019 Posts: 54 Inactive	I want to make sure I understand what is being said here. If I'm understanding correctly, your work suggests that within the first round of the draft, the players who log in and make their pick earliest are more likely to have a higher potential pick?

#65494	05/15/2019 11:44:39 pm	Oct 4th, 2040
buffmckagan Joined: 12/22/2013 Posts: 651 Scranton Bears Legends	The premise I got: TL;DR - Drafting from the smaller pools is not a good strategy unless you're sure you are drafting super duper early - Drafting from the bigger pools is a safer bet overall (especially HS)

#65499	05/16/2019 9:04:04 am	Oct 4th, 2040
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9602 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Still always going to have a big advantage the earlier you draft regardless of the pool size. But yes, it gets worse the smaller the pool gets.

#65501	05/16/2019 2:42:41 pm	Oct 4th, 2040
BUDude Joined: 05/05/2019 Posts: 54 Inactive	Cool, thanks for clarifying that for me. I'm getting better at understanding all the math-y wordings, but sometimes ya just need a good TLDR.

#65509	05/17/2019 2:50:06 am	Oct 8th, 2040
Yuri84 Joined: 10/14/2014 Posts: 639 Apple Valley Raccoons IV.4	Urgh, math... can you explain it using history or geography instead? Even biology will do... probably.

#65510	05/17/2019 3:51:10 am	Oct 8th, 2040
Frankebasta Joined: 09/15/2013 Posts: 885 Kodiak Mules III.3	Hmm... I'll give it a try with history: Those who came first, got to choose the best land in the New World, with minimal hustle because there was room for all Well, actually the VERY FIRST got screwed, because they landed too much to the North and there was not much to farm there... that's for those who draft HS at the very beginning and get a Pot11 Very Good Then, they had to go further and fight the harsh climate and those brave, desperate, local inhabitants (that's Texas and Utah settlers). Still got a nice place to settle in, but it was not easy. Required lots of skills. There's a late surge then: the route to California opened up, and the Oklahoma land rush too. Easy Peasy Last ones to come, they had to stay in NYC or Boston for a while, as indented laborers. That's still a 1st rounder, yes, but not everyone succeeds. Makes sense??? Updated Friday, May 17 2019 @ 5:42:51 am PDT